| 季节性流感的多元激发理论及其包含气象和社会行为因素的数学模型 |
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| 作者姓名： | ZHOU Steven Zhixiang |
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| 作者单位： | 伦敦大学伦敦卫生及热带医学院,英国,伦敦;英属哥伦比亚技术学院,加拿大,BC省,本拿比 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了解流感的季节性和爆发的生物力学机制，在收集、分析、计算全球各地流感监测资料的基础上，建立了流感传播的多元激发理论及相应的数值模式，并运用该模式对全球各大洲不同气候带的季节性流感和周际流感进行了数值模拟和预报尝试。模式近似解的数学表达式以及模式输出与实况高度吻合的模拟结果证明：流感的发病率呈高度自相关，同时受生物、气象环境和社会-行为因素支配；流感的爆发是各种因素协同作用的结果。动力共振、太阳辐射、降水、露点温度变化、行为和干预效应以及人群对优势流行毒株的免疫力是支配流感季节性和每周活动变化的关键因素。具体表现为，对于所有气候区，流感发病率都是降水日数的指数函数，日照时数的1/4次方的负指数函数。在温带和寒带地区，季节性流感的发病率是露点温度的负指数函数。在热带地区，则是露点与其年平均值绝对偏差的指数函数。研究提示：早期干预(例如适时和广泛接种疫苗、迅速隔离病例、停学、遏制早期病例总数等)是控制和预防季节性流感的关键；适量的日光照射或在雨季和日照短的季节补充维生素D、增加户外活动、发布高危天气预警、设定适中的室内露点温度是值得高度重视的预防策略。模式的模拟结果在很大程度上揭示了流感季节性的机理和证明了著名医学家和诺贝尔奖获得者RobeRt EdgaR Hope-Simpson在上世纪提出的流感季节性成因的猜想。模拟结果还表明，模式对每周流感发病率具有一定的预报能力。该理论和模型很可能适用于当前的甲型流感大流行和其它传染性疾病，可被进一步开发应用。
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| 关 键 词： | 流感季节性 流感模拟 流感大流行 维生素D |
A SEASONAL INFLUENZA THEORY AND MATHEMATICAL MODEL INCORPORATING METEOROLOGICAL AND SOCIO-BEHAVIORAL FACTORS |
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| ZHOU Steven Zhixiang.A SEASONAL INFLUENZA THEORY AND MATHEMATICAL MODEL INCORPORATING METEOROLOGICAL AND SOCIO-BEHAVIORAL FACTORS[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2009,25(6):706-716. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Steven Zhixiang |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of a comprehensive literature review and data analysis of global influenza surveillance, a transmission theory based numerical model is developed to understand the causative factors of influenza seasonality and the biodynamical mechanisms of seasonal flu. The model is applied to simulate the seasonality and weekly activity of influenza in different areas across all continents and climate zones around the world. Model solution and the good matches between model output and actual influenza indexes affirm that influenza activity is highly auto-correlative with relying on determinants of a broad spectrum. Dynamic resonance; solar radiation, precipitation, dewpoint, socio-behavioral influences, and herd immunity to circulating strains prove to be the critical explanatory factors of the seasonality and weekly activity of influenza. In all climate regions, influenza activity is proportional to the exponential of the number of days with precipitation and to the negative exponential of quarter power of sunny hours. Influenza activity is a negative exponential function of dewpoint in temperate and arctic regions and an exponential function of the absolute deviation of dewpoint from its annual mean in tropics. Epidemics of seasonal influenza could be deemed as the consequence of the synergetic effect of biological, environmental and socio-behavioral determinants. Early interventions (such as opportune vaccination, prompt social distancing, and maintaining incidence well below a baseline) are key to the control and prevention of seasonal influenza. Moderate amount of sunlight exposure or Vitamin D supplementation during rainy and short-day photoperiod seasons, more outdoor activities, and appropriate indoor dewpoint deserve great attention in influenza prevention. To a considerable degree, the study reveals the mechanism of influenza seasonality, verifies the famous Hypothesis put forwarded by Dr. Robert Edgar Hope-Simpson--a Nobel Prize winner, and demonstrates a potential for influenza activity projection. The concept and algorithm may also be applicable to pandemic and other infectious diseases and can be explored for further applications. |
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| Keywords: | influenza seasonality influenza modeling pandemic Vitamin D |
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