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Nowcasting sunshine number using logistic modeling |
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| Authors: | Marek Brabec Viorel Badescu Marius Paulescu |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Nonlinear Modeling, Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Pod Vodarenskou vezi 2, 182 07, Prague 8, Czech Republic 2. Candida Oancea Institute, Polytechnic University of Bucharest, Spl. Independentei 313, 060042, Bucharest, Romania 4. Romania Academy, Calea Victoriei 125, Bucharest, Romania 3. Physics Department, West University of Timisoara, V. Parvan 4, 300223, Timisoara, Romania |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present a formalized approach to statistical modeling of the sunshine number, binary indicator of whether the Sun is covered by clouds introduced previously by Badescu (Theor Appl Climatol 72:127–136, 2002). Our statistical approach is based on Markov chain and logistic regression and yields fully specified probability models that are relatively easily identified (and their unknown parameters estimated) from a set of empirical data (observed sunshine number and sunshine stability number series). We discuss general structure of the model and its advantages, demonstrate its performance on real data and compare its results to classical ARIMA approach as to a competitor. Since the model parameters have clear interpretation, we also illustrate how, e.g., their inter-seasonal stability can be tested. We conclude with an outlook to future developments oriented to construction of models allowing for practically desirable smooth transition between data observed with different frequencies and with a short discussion of technical problems that such a goal brings. |
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