| 2006年12月至2007年2月T213与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 桂海林.2006年12月至2007年2月T213与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,2007,33(5):111-117. |
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| 作者姓名： | 桂海林 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心,北京,100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对2006年12月至2007年1月T213模式96小时中期数值预报产品进行了天气学检验,并与ECMWF、日本模式96小时预报性能做了对比分析。结果表明,T213、ECMWF、日本模式对亚洲中高纬度地区大尺度环流形势演变和重大调整过程均有较好的预报能力,因此对重大灾害性天气的预报有较好的指示意义。三种模式相比,ECMWF模式对西风指数、850hPa温度、南支槽东移的预报较为准确。
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| 关 键 词： | T213模式 ECMWF模式 日本模式 中期天气预报 天气学检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007/3/20 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-03-20 |
The Performance Verification of the Medium-range Forecasting for T213 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model from Dec. 2006 to Feb. 2007 |
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| Gui,Hailin.The Performance Verification of the Medium-range Forecasting for T213 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model from Dec. 2006 to Feb. 2007[J].Meteorological Monthly,2007,33(5):111-117. |
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| Authors: | Gui Hailin |
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| Institution: | National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve the ability to use the products of T213 model, the performance of T213 model for 96hr medium-range numerical forecasting was verified during the period of Dec. 2006 to Jan. 2007comparing with ECMWF model and Japan model. The result shows that the three models have good performances for evolvement and major adjustment of circulation pattern in Asia middle and high latitude area, therefore, they can forecast the severe disaster weathers ahead. By comparing three models, the product of ECMWF model predict well for forecasting of westerly index, temperature of 850hPa and southern trough, but there are some system errors among the three model in forecasting temperature of 850hPa. Japan model is much better in forecasting surface pressure than T213 and ECMWF model. |
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| Keywords: | T213 model ECMWF model JAPAN model medium-range weather forecasting synoptic verification |
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