| 用质心跟踪法预报强对流天气的试验研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 章卫龙,方炳兴.用质心跟踪法预报强对流天气的试验研究[J].气象,1995,21(6):13-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 章卫龙 方炳兴 |
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| 作者单位： | 空军气象中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用１９８７－１９９１年６－８月间影响北京地区的１３次西北路径强对流天气过程数字化雷达回波资料，用质心跟踪法，分别对不同强度等级廓线的飑线回波带整体，和选择其中对预报地区有影响的快（条）状回波，作移动客观外推预报试验及分析。结果表明，质心跟踪法对强对流雷达回波具有较好的客观外推预报能力。其中，有选择的块（条）状回波的移动外推预测效果比飑线回波带整体要好，而两者又均以不衰减的回波区外推预报效果最好，
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| 关 键 词： | 天气预报 强对流天气 质心跟踪法 雷达回波 |
The Study of Severe Convection Weather Forecast by the Method of Tracking Echo Centroids |
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| Zhang Weilong, Fang Bingxing.The Study of Severe Convection Weather Forecast by the Method of Tracking Echo Centroids[J].Meteorological Monthly,1995,21(6):13-18. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Weilong Fang Bingxing |
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| Abstract: | By using digital radar echo data of 13 severe convection affecting Beijing region from June to August during 1987-1991,objective movement forecasting of the radar echo is derived for squall lines entirety and piece echo affecting forecasting region of different intensity with the method of tracking echo centroids. The results show that the method of tracking echo centroids has a fairly good capability of linear objective forecasting to radar echo of the severe convection. The effect of the piece echo movement forecasting is better than that of squall lines entirety,but the movement forecasting effect of non-attenuation echo is the best of them. At last real examples are verified. |
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| Keywords: | digital radar echo tracking echo centroid squlll line linear forecasting |
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