| 2008年12月至2009年2月T639与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 牛若芸.2008年12月至2009年2月T639与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,2009,35(5):112-119. |
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| 作者姓名： | 牛若芸 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心,北京,100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 对2008年12月至2009年2月T639、ECMWF、日本模式的中期预报性能进行了检验和对比分析.结果表明:3种模式对大气环流的演变和调整、850hPa温度升降变化趋势均有较强的预报能力,其中尤以ECMWF模式预报误差最小.3种模式对重大灾害性、转折性天气过程也有很好的指示性能,较成功地预报了3次全国性寒潮天气过程、长江中下游地区持续阴雨天气过程的大气环流形势特征及主要影响系统.
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| 关 键 词： | 中期预报性能 天气学检验 对比分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009/4/16 0:00:00 |
The Performance Verification of the Medium-Range Forecast for T639 and ECMWF and Japan Model from Dec.2008 to Feb.2009 |
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| Niu Ruoyun.The Performance Verification of the Medium-Range Forecast for T639 and ECMWF and Japan Model from Dec.2008 to Feb.2009[J].Meteorological Monthly,2009,35(5):112-119. |
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| Authors: | Niu Ruoyun |
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| Institution: | National Meteorological Center;Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | It was verified and compared that the performance of T639, ECMWF and Japan model about their medium-range forecasting during Dec. 2008 to Feb. 2009. The result shows that the three models have good performances for the evolvement and adjustment of atmospheric circulation situation in Asia middle and high latitude area, and also for the temperature trends of 850hPa. The prediction error of ECMWF model is minimal in that of the three models. They all show significant indication to forecast the transition and ... |
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| Keywords: | the performance of medium-range weather forecasting synoptic verification contrast and analysis |
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