| 2006年9—11月T213与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 阳揣环.2006年9—11月T213与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,2007,33(2):112-117. |
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| 作者姓名： | 阳揣环 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心,北京100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了验证T213模式秋季中期预报产品的性能与质量，对2006年9—11月T213模式96小时中期数值预报产品进行了天气学检验，并与ECMWF、日本模式96小时预报性能做了对比分析检验。结果表明，T213、ECMWF、日本模式对亚洲中高纬度地区大尺度环流形势演变和重大调整过程的96小时预报能力均较强，因此对重大灾害性天气的预报有较好的指示意义。三种模式相比，ECMWF模式对西风指数、850hPa温度、南支槽东移的预报较为准确；2006年11月4—6日的过程预报以日本模式最为吻合；T213模式对具体影响系统的强度、位置、影响时间的预报还存在一定误差。
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| 关 键 词： | T213模式 ECMWF模式 日本模式 中期天气预报 天气学检验 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-292007-01-10 |
Verification of Medium-range Forecasting Efficiency Of T213 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model From September to November 2006 |
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| Yang Chuaihuan.Verification of Medium-range Forecasting Efficiency Of T213 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model From September to November 2006[J].Meteorological Monthly,2007,33(2):112-117. |
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| Authors: | Yang Chuaihuan |
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| Abstract: | In order to understand the efficiency of the medium-range forecasting of T213 products in autumn, the synoptic verification to the products of T213 96h medium-term numerical forecasting from Sep. to Nov. 2006, and some comparisons with the NWP of ECMWF and JAPAN model are made. The results show that three models all have a good performance in forecasting the large-scale circulation of the high and middle latitudes. The product of ECMWF model is bet- ter in forecasting westerly index, the temperature of 850hPa and southern branch trough, while the product of JAPAN model plays an important role in process forecasting in 4-6 Nov., 2006. But with regard to the precision of the intensity, position and occurred time of the weather system, T213 model still has a way to go. |
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| Keywords: | T213 model ECMWF model JAPAN model medium-range forecasting synop-tic verification |
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