| 宁波市突发性地质灾害气象预报预警方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱龙彪,何彩芬,陈有利,崔飞君,朱晓曦.宁波市突发性地质灾害气象预报预警方法[J].气象,2007,33(11):112-117. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱龙彪 何彩芬 陈有利 崔飞君 朱晓曦 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江省宁波市气象局,315012
2. 浙江省宁波市国土资源局 |
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| 摘 要： | 地质灾害的诱发因素包括人为因素和自然因素,但在一定的地质结构及环境条件下,降雨是地质灾害发生的最主要诱发因素。基于人工神经网络系统(ANN)和地理信息系统(GIS),结合地面中尺度自动观测系统的雨量实况与高精度的WRF数值预报雨量格点产品,依托MICAPS系统,实现预报员的快速主观订正,建立的宁波市突发性地质灾害预报预警系统在业务运行中是高效可行的。
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| 关 键 词： | 地质灾害 气象条件 预报预警 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006/12/7 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-072007-07-14 |
Early Warning and Prediction of Abrupt Geological Hazards Based on Weather Forecast in Ningbo |
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| Zhu Longbiao,He Caifen,Chen Youli,Cui Feijun and Zhu Xiaoxi.Early Warning and Prediction of Abrupt Geological Hazards Based on Weather Forecast in Ningbo[J].Meteorological Monthly,2007,33(11):112-117. |
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| Authors: | Zhu Longbiao He Caifen Chen Youli Cui Feijun and Zhu Xiaoxi |
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| Institution: | 1. Ningbo Meteorological office, Zhejiang Province 315012;2. Ningbo Land and Resources Department, Zhejiang Province |
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| Abstract: | The geological hazards can be induced by both man-made and natural factors. Precipitation may be the most important factor under a certain geological structure and environmental conditions. The early warning and prediction system of abrupt geological hazard in Ningbo would be very efficient and feasible in the operation, which is based on artificial neural net-work (ANN) and geographical information system (GIS), combined with rainfall factor from surface mesoscale observation system and high-precision grid rainfall amount forecasted by WRF model and relied on MICAPS to achieve quick subjective correction by forecasters. |
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| Keywords: | geological hazard meteorological condition early warning and prediction |
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