| 关于提高天气预报准确率的几个问题 |
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| 引用本文： | 矫梅燕.关于提高天气预报准确率的几个问题[J].气象,2007,33(11):3-8. |
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| 作者姓名： | 矫梅燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 致谢：感谢方宗义研究员对本文的指导和修正. |
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| 摘 要： | 提高天气预报准确率是气象业务的一项基础性、系统性的工作。作者从天气预报的业务技术体系着眼,借鉴发达国家的发展经验,分析了提高天气预报准确率的若干问题,提出了发展精细化的预报技术体系,将数值预报模式、天气学预报方法、动力诊断和统计释用及基于卫星和雷达等现代探测技术的短时临近预警技术相结合的预报技术路线;提出了有利于精细化预报的业务体系,即发展以定量降水预报、台风预报和灾害性天气短时临近预警为重点的专业化预报业务体系;指出专家型预报队伍的建设是提高预报业务水平的关键环节。
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| 关 键 词： | 预报准确率 精细化预报 业务技术体系 预报专家 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007/8/31 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-08-31 |
The Ways to Enhance the Weather Forecast Skill |
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| Jiao Meiyan.The Ways to Enhance the Weather Forecast Skill[J].Meteorological Monthly,2007,33(11):3-8. |
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| Authors: | Jiao Meiyan |
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| Institution: | National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | A topic discussed is the ways to enhance the weather forecasts skill. Many kinds of factors were related with the weather forecast skill. Scientifically, it is impossible to give the perfect weather forecast because of the existence of probabilities uncertainties. However, it is needed to improve our skill on the weather forecast in order to meet the meteorological service needs better. By sharing the experience of advanced meteorological centers of the world, the ways were explored to enhance the skill of weather forecast scientifically and technically. Firstly, different advanced techniques and methods should be developed and improved to support the weather forecast, not only the numerical weather prediction model, but also the synoptic method, model interpretation scheme and dynamical analysis. The related scientific and technological efforts should be made on this area. Secondly, different specialized forecast, such as quantitative precipitation forecast, storm scale weather forecast and the typhoon forecast, should be set up on the national level center to enhance the skill specially and to give strong guidance to the lower level weather forecast section. Thirdly, a forecaster expert team should be brought up both by routine forecast practice and scientific practice. |
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| Keywords: | weather forecast skill technique and methods specialized forecast forecaster expert |
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