| 森林火险预报的最优经济决策及其效益的估算 |
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| 引用本文： | 毛贤敏.森林火险预报的最优经济决策及其效益的估算[J].气象,1988,14(5):23-26. |
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| 作者姓名： | 毛贤敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 沈阳中心气象台 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文简要介绍了从平均损失最小准则出发,预报连续量的最优经济决策的计算方法,并计算了辽宁省森林火险指数预报潜在的经济效益。计算结果表明,当损失函数是预报误差的二次函数时,采用回归值最优决策代替目前使用的平均值决策方法,全省165个林场每年可以减少损失78.7％,折合人民币约343万元。
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Economic optimum decision of Forest Fire Risk forecasting and its benefit |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,the author has calculated the potential economic benefit for Forest Fire forecasting. The results show that the loss of all 165 forest farms over Liaoning Province, using the optimum decision of regression value instead of the mean value "ecision, will reduce the 78.7%, which is equivalent about 3,430,000 yuan, when the loss function is the quadratic function of forecasting errors. |
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