| 2016年3—5月T639、ECMWF及日本
模式中期预报性能检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 张峰.2016年3—5月T639、ECMWF及日本
模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,2016,42(8):1020-1025. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心，北京 100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 对2016年3—5月T639、ECMWF及日本（文中简称JP）数值模式的中期预报产品进行了分析和检验。结果表明：3个模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变均具有较好的预报性能，其中ECMWF模式预报效果最好。3个模式对850 hPa温度的转折性变化趋势均有较好的预报能力，其中对南方地区温度变化的预报能力明显优于北方地区，ECMWF综合预报效果最好。此外，选取了2016年3月3—5日的沙尘天气过程进行个例分析，发现T639和ECMWF模式对此次过程的地面高压系统的中期预报指示意义较好。
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| 关 键 词： | T639模式，ECMWF模式，日本模式，中期天气预报，天气学检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/6/29 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016/7/25 0:00:00 |
Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecasts by T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from March to May 2016 |
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| ZHANG Feng.Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecasts by T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from March to May 2016[J].Meteorological Monthly,2016,42(8):1020-1025. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Feng |
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| Institution: | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | The performance of medium range forecasts is verified and compared for the models of T639, ECMWF and Japan from March to May 2016. The results show that all of the three models can predict the variation and adjustment of the atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitude areas well, of which ECMWF model performs the best. The three models all perform well in predicting the transitions of temperature at 850 hPa, as they all have smaller biases for Southern China than for Northern China, but ECMWF model shows a better comprehensive performance than the other two. Taking the sandstorm process seen in 3-5 March as a case, we see that T639 and ECMWF models are more effective than Japan model in medium range forecasting of the surface high pressure system which incurred the sandstorm weather process this time. |
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| Keywords: | T639 model ECMWF model JP model medium range forecast synoptic verification |
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