| 江西省对流云火箭增雨作业个例分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 祝晓芸,姚展予.江西省对流云火箭增雨作业个例分析[J].气象,2017,43(2):221-231. |
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| 作者姓名： | 祝晓芸 姚展予 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局云雾物理重点实验室，中国气象科学研究院，北京 100081,中国气象局云雾物理重点实验室，中国气象科学研究院，北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目(41375135)和公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406033)共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用基于日雨量和小时雨量资料的区域历史回归分析方法和基于雷达探测的作业云体单元和对比云体单元的时间序列对比分析方法对江西省两次对流云火箭增雨作业个例进行综合分析,结果表明:两次增雨作业的区域历史回归分析结果均为正效果,且均通过显著性水平检验,但使用日雨量资料和小时雨量资料分析得到的增雨效果差异较大,原因可能是两种雨量资料的时空分布差异较大,火箭作业期间两种雨量资料包含的时间长度不一致;利用雷达探测资料,基于相似理论找出与作业云体单元最相似的对比云体单元,对比分析作业云体单元和对比云体单元在作业前后雷达探测的5个物理量的时间序列变化发现,两次增雨作业中,作业云体单元的5个雷达探测物理量相对于对比云体单元出现了明显的正偏离现象,其中作业云体单元回波体积增加趋势最为突出,增雨效果的物理证据明显。两次对流云火箭增雨作业的雨量区域历史回归分析的正效果与雷达探测的作业云体单元和对比云体单元作业前后时间序列变化的正偏离现象互为印证,较好地展示了对流云火箭作业的增雨效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 火箭增雨， 效果检验， 区域历史回归， 雷达探测， 时间序列变化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/1/19 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016/12/4 0:00:00 |
Analysis of Convective Cloud Seeding Cases by Rockets in Jiangxi Province |
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| ZHU Xiaoyun and YAO Zhanyu.Analysis of Convective Cloud Seeding Cases by Rockets in Jiangxi Province[J].Meteorological Monthly,2017,43(2):221-231. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Xiaoyun and YAO Zhanyu |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory for Cloud Physics of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 and Key Laboratory for Cloud Physics of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | The effect of two rocket precipitation enhancement cases for convective cloud in Jiangxi Province is evaluated using the methods of historical regression analysis and time series comparison and analysis for cloud units, which are based on regional rainfall data and radar data, respectively. The results show that the consequences about the effect of the two cases are positive deviations, and both precipitation effects have passed the significance test. The reason for the precipitation enhancement effect difference between the daily precipitation data and hourly rainfall data may be that the gap of the two kinds of data is larger in spatial and temporal distribution, and the selected operation periods of the two kinds of rainfall data are not in the same length. Through comparing physical parameters between the seeded cloud units and the unseeded cloud units, which are similar to those seeded detected by radar before and after the operation, an obvious positive deviation is found. So, the radar detection evidence of precipitation enhancement is provided. The radar detection results are consistent with the regional historical regression results in the two cases. The variation trends of the two cases are consistent and both of the two cases have positive deviations. |
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| Keywords: | artificial precipitation by rockets effect testing regional historical regression radar detection time series variation |
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