| 亚欧500hPa旬平均形势预报的改进及检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 任金声,李晓东,林玉成,吴金瑞.亚欧500hPa旬平均形势预报的改进及检验[J].气象,1994,20(9):34-37. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任金声 李晓东 林玉成 吴金瑞 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用数值预报产品，对原亚欧５００ｈＰａ旬平均形势预报方程作了改进。除对空间和时间尺度上作了改进外，在预报因子的选择上，由亚欧地区的单点相关，扩张至整个北半球的相关；并根据长波天气系统的气候地理分布和遥相关分析等方法，选择关键区作为候选因子，组建了新的形势预报方程。经检验比较，新的形势预报方程高度距平正确和长波系统位置正确率分别提高了０．１５－０．２０和０．１０。
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| 关 键 词： | 数值预报数据 天气预报 形势预报 |
Improvement and Test of Eurasian 500hPa Ten Days Average Prognosis |
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| Ren Jinsheng, Li Xiaodong, Lin Yucheng, Wu Jinrui.Improvement and Test of Eurasian 500hPa Ten Days Average Prognosis[J].Meteorological Monthly,1994,20(9):34-37. |
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| Authors: | Ren Jinsheng Li Xiaodong Lin Yucheng Wu Jinrui |
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| Abstract: | The improvement of Eurasian 500hPa ten days average prognostic eqaution has been improved with NWP product, besides the spatial-temporal scale, predictions among grid by grid correlation from Eurasian to the northern hemisphere,the climate geographical distribution of the long-wave weather system and the methods of teleconnection analysis etc. were chosen for the critical region, to construct new prognostic equation. A comparison betweenthese two prognosis, the forecast accuracy of the new prognosis was improved respectively,0. 15-0. 20 and 0. 10 on forecast height and position of the long-wave weather system. |
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| Keywords: | NWP product correlation analysis prediction test |
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