| 误差订正在预报集成中的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨松,杞明辉,姚德宽.误差订正在预报集成中的应用研究[J].气象,2003,29(12):22-24. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨松 杞明辉 姚德宽 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 云南省保山市气象台,678000
2. 云南省气象科学研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 云南省“十五”科技攻关项目 2 0 0 1NG4 30 4资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据误差的特性，即误差由系统误差和随机误差组成，对保山5月雨量的几种预报方法的预报结果进行分析，寻找系统误差的订正方法，降低系统误差的影响。将几种预报方法订正后的结果平均从而消除随机误差，其预报结果明显改善，平均误差和均方根误差明显降低，预报准确率明显提高，可以在业务预测中广泛推广应用。
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| 关 键 词： | 误差订正 预报集成 回归分析 非线性 数学模型 |
Application of Error Correction in Forecast Ensemble |
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| Yang Song,Qi Minghui,Yao Dekuan.Application of Error Correction in Forecast Ensemble[J].Meteorological Monthly,2003,29(12):22-24. |
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| Authors: | Yang Song Qi Minghui Yao Dekuan |
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| Institution: | Yang Song 1 Qi Minghui 2 Yao Dekuan 1 |
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| Abstract: | In consideration of the error comprised of systematic and random error, the error analysis of the May rainfall forecast of several methods in Baoshan, Yunnan Province is made. And first, the systemic error correction method of each forecast technique is found out, to reduce its effect. Then, the corrected forecast is averaged, to eliminate the random error. The results show that mean error and mean square root error decrease obviously, and the forecast accuracy is improved obviously. |
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| Keywords: | forecast ensemble rainfall systematic error random error |
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