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公路积水阻断与降雨关系的探讨
引用本文:田华,王志,戴至修,李宛育.公路积水阻断与降雨关系的探讨[J].气象,2018,44(5):684-691.
作者姓名:田华  王志  戴至修  李宛育
作者单位:中国气象局公共气象服务中心
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306043和GYHY201406029)共同资助
摘    要:利用2011—2013年全国公路积水阻断资料,分析了公路积水阻断的时空分布特征,并对公路积水阻断与不同时效降雨的关系进行了探讨。结果表明,公路积水阻断事件发生时间主要集中在5—9月,其中7月最为频繁,公路积水阻断事件以07:00—14:00为第一多发时段,16:00—20:00为次多发时段。公路积水阻断与前24h内的降水关系更为密切。区域不同,公路积水阻断随各强度降水变化的特点也不尽相同。经过开立方根处理后的降水因子与公路积水阻断发生的频次服从于高斯分布。其中,区域1公路积水阻断与处理后的1h最大降水因子关系密切,相关系数大于0.91;区域2和3公路积水阻断与处理后的6h最大降水因子关系密切,相关系数均在0.8以上;区域4公路积水阻断则与处理后的24h最大降水因子关系密切,相关系数在0.75左右。对于任何一个区域,诱发公路积水阻断的不同时效降水都处于一个较大的空间。对于给定的降水量只能判断公路积水阻断发生的可能性大小。

关 键 词:公路,积水阻断,降水
收稿时间:2016/8/30 0:00:00
修稿时间:2017/7/20 0:00:00

Research on Relationship Between Highway Traffic Blocking Induced by Waterlogging and Precipitation
TIAN Hu,WANG Zhi,DAI Zhixiu and LI Wanyu.Research on Relationship Between Highway Traffic Blocking Induced by Waterlogging and Precipitation[J].Meteorological Monthly,2018,44(5):684-691.
Authors:TIAN Hu  WANG Zhi  DAI Zhixiu and LI Wanyu
Institution:CMA Public Weather Service Centre, Beijing 100081,CMA Public Weather Service Centre, Beijing 100081,CMA Public Weather Service Centre, Beijing 100081 and CMA Public Weather Service Centre, Beijing 100081
Abstract:Based on the 2011-2013 official records of nationwide highway traffic blocking induced by surface water, this study analyzes the spatio temporal characteristics of highway traffic blocking induced by waterlogging, and investigates the correlation between highway waterlogging and precipitation in different durations. From the aspect of time, the yearly blocking is mainly recorded from May to September, especially in July; the daily blocking mainly occurs in 07:00-14:00, and next in 16:00-20:00. The highway waterlogging blocking is highly related to the precipitation in the latest 24 h, and the correlation between the highway traffic blocking by waterbogging and rainfall with different intensities varies among the regions. The correlation between the precipitation factor after dealing with cube root and the frequency of highway traffic blocking by waterlogging accords with the Gaussian distribution. From the aspect of space, the concerned blocking in Region 1 is closely related to hourly maximum precipitation factor with correlation coefficient over 0.91; the ones in Region 2 and Region 3 are closely related to 6 h maximum precipitation factor with correlation coefficient over 0.8; and the ones in Region 4 are closely related to 24 h maximum precipitation factor with correlation coefficient about 0.75. However, no matter in which region the highway traffic blocking induced by waterlogging occurs, the characteristics of precipitation are greatly different, so we can only estimate the risk probability of highway traffic blocking induced by waterlogging from the specific precipitation forecast.
Keywords:highway  blocking by waterlogging  precipitation
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