| 极端天气气候事件监测与预测研究进展及其应用综述 |
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| 引用本文： | 任福民,高辉,刘绿柳,宋艳玲,高荣,王遵娅,龚志强,王永光,陈丽娟,李清泉,柯宗建,孙丞虎,贾小龙.极端天气气候事件监测与预测研究进展及其应用综述[J].气象,2014,40(7):860-874. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任福民 高辉 刘绿柳 宋艳玲 高荣 王遵娅 龚志强 王永光 陈丽娟 李清泉 柯宗建 孙丞虎 贾小龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081; 国家气候中心,北京 100081; 江苏省气候变化协同创新中心,南京 210093;国家气候中心,北京 100081;国家气候中心,北京 100081;国家气候中心,北京 100081;国家气候中心,北京 100081;国家气候中心,北京 100081;国家气候中心,北京 100081;国家气候中心,北京 100081;国家气候中心,北京 100081;国家气候中心,北京 100081;国家气候中心,北京 100081;国家气候中心,北京 100081;国家气候中心,北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41175075和41375056)及全球变化重大科学研究计划(2010CB950501和2012CB955901)共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 极端天气气候事件(简称"极端事件")分为单站极端事件和区域性极端事件。本文回顾了极端事件的研究进展,首先回顾了单站极端温度、极端降水和干旱事件的观测研究及相关指数,进而对近年来不断增多的区域性极端事件研究做了简要回顾,最后还回顾了极端事件气候预测研究进展。同时,对国内外在极端事件气候监测和预测业务现状进行了初步总结,并指出:在极端事件气候监测方面中国的业务产品较丰富,并率先开展了针对区域性极端事件的监测业务,但在产品表现形式上缺乏统一组织,特别是英文产品表现力严重不足;在极端事件气候预测方面,国家气候中心发展了两种方法:一个是基于物理统计的BP-CCA和OSR的干旱预测方法,另一个基于国家气候中心月动力延伸预报模式(DERF)的高温预测方法。最后,对极端事件监测和预测业务发展及相关科学问题给出展望,指出应根据极端事件的业务需求继续加强相关研究和业务能力建设。
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| 关 键 词： | 极端天气气候事件 区域性极端事件 研究进展 气候监测 气候预测 业务应用 |
| 收稿时间： | 9/6/2013 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2014/2/13 0:00:00 |
Research Progresses on Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Their Operational Applications in Climate Monitoring and Prediction |
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| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081; National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081; Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change, Nanjing 210093;National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081;National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081;National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081;National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081;National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081;National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081;National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081;National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081;National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081;National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081;National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081;National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | Weather and climate extreme events can be divided into individual extreme events and regional extreme events. This paper reviews the progress of the studies on extreme events. Firstly, the paper pays attentions to observation study on temperature extremes, precipitation extremes, droughts and the related indices at individual station, and then reviews the study about the increasing regional extreme events in recent years and also reviews the study progress in predicting climatic extreme events. Meanwhile, a summary of the current climate monitoring and prediction operations of extreme events in China and in the world has been preliminarily carried out. The results show that the operational products in extreme event monitoring are very rich in China with a leading position in the field of regional extreme event monitoring, but in the form of products there is not a unified organization, especially in products in English. Regarding the climatic prediction of extreme events National Climate Centre has developed two methods: One is a BP CCA and OSR drought prediction method based on physical statistics, and the other is high temperature prediction method based on the National Climate Centre Monthly Dynamic Extended Range Forecast (DERF) model. Finally, an outlook of climate monitoring and prediction operations of extreme events and related scientific issues is given, and a stress is made on continuing to strengthen the frontier researches and operational capacity building of extreme events in the future. |
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| Keywords: | extreme weather and climate events regional extreme event research progress climate monitoring climate prediction operational application |
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