| 上海区域要素客观预报方法效果检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 漆梁波,曹晓岗,夏立,陈春红,梁旭东.上海区域要素客观预报方法效果检验[J].气象,2007,33(9):9-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 漆梁波 曹晓岗 夏立 陈春红 梁旭东 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 上海中心气象台,200030
2. 上海台风研究所 |
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| 摘 要： | 数值模式的客观释用是数值模式在业务工作中发挥效能的重要环节。在对上海区域数值模式近5年的模式直接输出(DMO)进行检验的基础上,分别采用卡尔曼滤波释用(KLM)和最优化集成释用(OCF)的方法进行要素客观释用,总结出区域数值模式的预报性能,客观释用也取得令人鼓舞的结果:(1)近几年,上海区域数值模式的直接输出结果(DMO)对温度、湿度以及风向的预报改善不明显,甚至还有变差现象,风速的预报自2005年起有改善,但主要体现在预报的稳定性方面。(2)KLM方法较DMO在温度、相对湿度和风速的预报上均有明显提高,但是风向的预报无明显提高,预报准确率甚至略有下降。(3)OCF方法的预报性能较KLM方法略有提高。温度、相对湿度以及风向的预报准确率提高约2%,风速预报与KLM方法相当。在春季和冬季,OCF的预报水平已经与主观综合预报相当,如果主观综合预报能充分参考OCF的预报结果,主观综合预报"春季和冬季预报误差相对偏大"这一弱点能得到改善。检验结果能为数值模式的开发和调试者提供有益的参考,而最优化集成方法的成功业务尝试也佐证了集成预报在数值模式客观释用中的美好前景。
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| 关 键 词： | 区域数值模式 预报性能 客观释用 最优化集成 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007/5/10 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-05-102007-07-27 |
Verification of Weather Elements Objective Forecast in Shanghai Regional Meteorological Center |
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| Qi Liangbo,Cao Xiaogang,Xia Li,Chen Chunhong,Liang Xudong.Verification of Weather Elements Objective Forecast in Shanghai Regional Meteorological Center[J].Meteorological Monthly,2007,33(9):9-18. |
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| Authors: | Qi Liangbo Cao Xiaogang Xia Li Chen Chunhong Liang Xudong |
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| Institution: | 1. Shanghai Meteorological Center, 200030; 2. Shanghai Typhoon Institute |
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| Abstract: | Numerical model output's verification and interpretation are very important to model's development and maximum operational application.Shanghai Regional Meteorological Center(SRMC)'s regional numerical model has been in operation for nearly 10 years.Evaluation on its forecasting capabilities must be conducted for its scientific developing.On the other side,model output interpretation has been entering a new time of consensus theory.Applications of numerical model output interpretation based on Kalman filter and optimal consensus forecast are introduced and verified in SRMC.After detailed verification and comparison on Direct Model Output(DMO),Kalman filter interpretation(KLM),Optimal Consensus Forecast(OCF) for SRMC's regional numerical model,it is found that(1) For temperature,relative humidity and wind,the performance of SRMC's DMO does not show a trend of improvement,but a little declination,though it has had a more stable wind speed forecast since 2005.(2) The comparison of KLM and DMO shows that the forecast stability of KLM behaves much higher than that of DMO in temperature,relative humidity and wind speed.But its forecast on wind direction shows no advance with a slightly lower accuracy than DMO.(3) OCF performs better than KLM.For temperature,relative humidity and wind direction's accuracies,it shows an improvement of 2%.As to wind speed,though its accuracy is nearly equal to KLM's,it has a lower average error than the latter.In the spring and winter,the OCF stands at the same accuracy level with official forecast.With the guidance of OCF,the weakness of official forecast,"Which is error in the spring and winter than other seasons",can be mended.The verification results could be good references for numerical model's development and transplantation.The success of OCF in SRMC's routine operation projects a bright prosperity for the application of consensus theory on numerical model objective interpretation. |
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| Keywords: | regional numerical model forecasting capabilities objective interpretation optimal consensus forecast |
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