| 用T42产品试作安徽12-36小时暴雨预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 张明玉,袁野,杨金锡.用T42产品试作安徽12-36小时暴雨预报[J].气象,1996,22(1):46-48. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张明玉 袁野 杨金锡 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽省气象台 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用逐步回归和三级判别方案，以Ｔ４２４８小时预报资料代替实况诊断量作汛期安徽分区暴雨预报。通过１９９３年和１９９４年试验结果表明：（１）两方案预报暴雨的ＣＳＩ评分为０．３０—０．７１，对省级分区暴雨预报有一定的参考价值；（２）逐步回归方案的预报效果优于三级判别；（３）丰梅年Ｔ４２模式的预报效果好干枯梅年。
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| 关 键 词： | T47产品，诊断资料，逐步回归，三级判别，暴雨预报 |
36-hours Torrential Rain Forecast with T42 Output in Anhui Province |
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| Zhang Mingyu,Yuan ye,Yang Jinxi.36-hours Torrential Rain Forecast with T42 Output in Anhui Province[J].Meteorological Monthly,1996,22(1):46-48. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Mingyu Yuan ye Yang Jinxi |
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| Abstract: | The sectional torrential rain forecast in Anhui province was discussed during flood period with the application of the step wise regression and triple discriminatory with T42 predicting data of 48 hours instead of the real-time diagnosis. This test was conducted during 1993-1994. Its results show that (1) the CSI of the torrential rain prediction was from 0. 30 to0' 71,both methods could be used in the torrential rain forecast in Anhui; (2) the predictingeffect of the regression was better than discriminatory; (3)the predicting effect in surplusMei-yu rainfall was better than that in deficient Mei-yu years. |
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| Keywords: | T42 output diagnosis data stepwise regression triple discriminatorytorrential rain forecasting |
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