| 纬圈谱在中期数值预报产品统计释用中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 钟元,程煜,简根梅,李秀莉.纬圈谱在中期数值预报产品统计释用中的应用[J].气象,1987,13(1):15-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 钟元 程煜 简根梅 李秀莉 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江省气象科学研究所
(钟元，程煜，简根梅)，浙江省气象台(李秀莉) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文对ECMWF输出的500hPa高度的72,96及120小时预报值,用谐波分析的方法将高度场的扰动分解成纬图谱,并由不同简谐波的扰动叠加得到合成波。以波参数谱,物理量谱及合成波高度为预报因子,对浙江省春季中期天气过程作相关分析,并用逐步回归的方法建立中期MOS预报方程。业务使用表明,由波谱因子组成的预报方程对中期天气过程有一定的预报能力。
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The application of zonal spectral analysis to interpretation of medium range numerical prediction product |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the disturbance of ECMWF forecast height has been resolved into zonal wave spectrum by method of harmonic analysis. The integrated waves are composed of varied harmonics. The relations between the spectrum and medium range weather for spring over Zhejing Province are analysed. By using stepwise regression the medium range forecast equations are established. The forecasting results indicated that the equations are efficacious. |
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