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| 未来的天气气候预测体系 | |
| 引用本文： | 叶笃正,严中伟,戴新刚,钱维宏,叶谦.未来的天气气候预测体系[J].气象,2006,32(4):3-8. |
| 作者姓名： | 叶笃正 严中伟 戴新刚 钱维宏 叶谦 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚中心,北京,100029 2. 北京大学物理学院大气科学系 3. 中国气象科学研究院 |
| 摘 要： | 天气气候预测中的不确定性是不可避免的。它一方面给用户或有关决策者带来很大的困难，同时也给科学工作者提出了新的研究课题。文章较为系统地评述了近几年出现的关于如何发展未来气象预测体系的若干观点，根据风险经济学和决策理论，构建了一个未来天气气候预测体系的概念模型。其主要思想是将气象预测过程同用户决策过程有机地结合起来，充分利用来自用户的知识和风险管理经验，形成一个相互作用协同发展的预测体系。 |
| 关 键 词： | 天气气候预测 用户经验 风险评估 决策过程 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-01-13 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-03-01 |
A Discussion of Future System of Weather and Climate Prediction |
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| Ye Duzheng,Yan Zhongwei,Dai Xingang,Qian Weihong,Ye Qian.A Discussion of Future System of Weather and Climate Prediction[J].Meteorological Monthly,2006,32(4):3-8. | |
| Authors: | Ye Duzheng Yan Zhongwei Dai Xingang Qian Weihong Ye Qian |
| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029; 2. College of Physics, Peking University; 3. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences |
| Abstract: | Uncertainty is unavoidable in weather and climate prediction, which gives rise to difficulties for societal decision-making, and meanwhile provides opportunity for developing the research of prediction. This note reviews the thoughts that have emerged in recent years towards the future development of the meteorological prediction system. And then it makes up an example to show how the userts knowledge can be combined with weather forecasting based on decision-making theory. Finally, a conceptual framework of the future prediction system is proposed, which combines the meteorological models and the decision-making processes comprising risk assessments and other knowledge from various users. |
| Keywords: | meteorological prediction userls knowledge risk assessment decision-making |
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