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| 密云水库流域性暴雨的短期预报方法研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 张德山,邵明轩,穆启占,张宝荣,刘明华,刘明.密云水库流域性暴雨的短期预报方法研究[J].气象,2006,32(11):61-66. |
| 作者姓名： | 张德山 邵明轩 穆启占 张宝荣 刘明华 刘明 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 北京市专业气象台,北京100089 2. 国家气象中心 3. 北京市密云县气象局 |
| 摘 要： | 为了探索密云水库流域性暴雨的预报，着眼于影响暴雨的天气系统，从数值预报的解释应用入手，试验制作了密云水库流域性暴雨预报方法。通过整理1970-1993年24年间水库流域内20个水文站雨量资料，分析45个暴雨天气样本与历史天气形势和数值预报产品的关系，筛选出预报指标和预报因子，使用数值预报产品的解释应用方法，根据天气环流形势的分型，分别组建了6、7、8月每个月份的未来24小时暴雨天气预报方程。预报检验表明该预报方法是可信的，同时也表明客观划分环流型、筛选预报因子、恰当确定暴雨标准等是预报方法的关键。 |
| 关 键 词： | 密云水库流域性 数值预报产品释用 暴雨预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 04 11 2006 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-04-112006-09-07 |
A Short-range Forecast Method of Heavy Rainfall in Miyun Reservoir Basin |
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| Zhang Deshan,Shao Mingxuan,Mu Qizhan,Zhang Baorong,Liu Minghua,Liu Ming.A Short-range Forecast Method of Heavy Rainfall in Miyun Reservoir Basin[J].Meteorological Monthly,2006,32(11):61-66. | |
| Authors: | Zhang Deshan Shao Mingxuan Mu Qizhan Zhang Baorong Liu Minghua Liu Ming |
| Institution: | 1. Beijing Special Meteorological Observatory, 100089; 2. National Meteorological Center; 3. Miyun Meteorological Station, geijing |
| Abstract: | A method of forecasting the heavy rainfall in the Miyun Reservoir Basin is developed, according to the synoptic situation during the heavy rainfall, by means of the interpretation and application of NWF outputs, and the local observations. By analyzing the rainfall data of 20 hydrological stations in the Miyun Reservoir Basin from 1970 to 1993, the relationship between 45 heavy rainfall events and synoptic situations, NWF outputs, the forecast indexes and synoptic patterns are put forward, and 24-hour heavy rain forecast equations of June, July, August in the Miyun Reservoir Basin are developed. The operational forecasts show that the forecast method is feasible and successful. |
| Keywords: | heavy rainfall NWF output synoptic patterns |
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