| 2009年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 蔡芗宁.2009年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,2010,36(2):130-135. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蔡芗宁 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心,北京,100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 为更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品,对2009年9—11月T639模式96小时预报产品进行了天气学检验,并与ECMWF、日本模式进行了对比分析。结果表明:3种模式均对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。综合来看,ECMWF模式对各系统及要素的预报最接近实况;日本模式和T639模式次之;ECMWF模式对0917号热带风暴芭玛(Parma)的预报较为成功,T639模式稳定性较差,而日本模式对"芭玛"的预报无论是路径还是强度都存在较大偏差。
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| 关 键 词： | T639模式 中期人气预报 大气学检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008/10/21 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2009/9/18 0:00:00 |
Performance Verification of the Medium-Range Forecasting for T639,ECMWF and Japan Models from September to November 2009 |
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| CAI Xiangning.Performance Verification of the Medium-Range Forecasting for T639,ECMWF and Japan Models from September to November 2009[J].Meteorological Monthly,2010,36(2):130-135. |
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| Authors: | CAI Xiangning |
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| Institution: | National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve the ability to use the products of T639,some synoptic verification on its medium-range forecasting in 2009 autumn is made in comparison with the NWP of ECMWF and Japan models. The results show that the three models have good performances in the aspect of predicting the largescale circulation evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude areas.As a whole,ECMWF model is better in forecasting most weather systems compared with the T639 and Japan models.Taking tropical storm No.... |
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| Keywords: | T639 model medium-range forecasting synoptic verification |
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