| 长江中下游旱涝中期预报方法及其业务应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 金荣花,李月安,晁淑懿,任金声.长江中下游旱涝中期预报方法及其业务应用[J].气象,2004,30(12):47-52. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金荣花 李月安 晁淑懿 任金声 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心,北京,100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了双层多因子综合相似的长江中下游旱涝中期预报模型。该模型引入了具有明确动力学和热力学意义的地转西风动量经向输送和经向温度梯度诊断量，同时强调了西太平洋副热带高压对长江中下游夏季降水的关键作用，并考虑了对流层中、低层500hPa高度和850hPa温度的大尺度环流背景场。与过去业务应用的单层相似预报模型相比较，不仅物理意义和天气学含义明确，而且更符合对具有复杂动力和热力机制的降水预报的考虑。5年的预报试验和业务应用结果表明，该方法对长江中下游地区旱涝的中期趋势预报有较好的预报能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 旱涝 中期预报 大尺度环流 夏季降水 相似预报 500hPa 西太平洋副热带高压 长江中下游地区 诊断 趋势预报 |
An Operational Medium-range Forecast Model for the Drought/Flood in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Changjiang River |
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| Jin Ronghua,Li Yue''an,Chao Shuyi,Ren Jinsheng.An Operational Medium-range Forecast Model for the Drought/Flood in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Changjiang River[J].Meteorological Monthly,2004,30(12):47-52. |
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| Authors: | Jin Ronghua Li Yue'an Chao Shuyi Ren Jinsheng |
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| Abstract: | A double-level multi-factor synthetic analogue prediction model is given for the coming 10-day forecasting of the drought/flood in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River in flood season. It takes into account of the following five predictors: the meridional transmission of geotropic west wind momentum, area index and location of the subtropical high in the west Pacific and the geopotential height filed at 500hPa level, the meridional temperature gradient and temperature field at 850hPa level. Compared with the former single-level analogue prediction model, it has more specific physical meaning and is more competent for the complex dynamic mechanics precipitation forecast. Five-year forecast experiment and operational application shows that this method has good performance in the medium-range tendency forecast for the drought/flood of the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River. |
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| Keywords: | drought/flood medium-range forecast meridional transmission of west wind momentum meridional temperature gradient operational application |
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