| 气候变化情景生成技术研究综述 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 吴金栋,王馥棠.气候变化情景生成技术研究综述[J].气象,1998,24(2):3-8. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 吴金栋 王馥棠 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 简单回顾了气候变化对农业生产影响研究的进展，分析了气候变化情景生成技术研究的必要性，即影响模式与ＧＣＭｓ的嵌套困难及对气候变率和产量变率的认识。指出该技术是目前这一领域研究的关键所在。
|
| 关 键 词： | 气候情景 天气发生器 气候变化 生成支技 |
Study on the Creation of Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Analysis:A Review |
| |
| Abstract: | he Necessity for the study on creation of climate change scenarios is analyzed in the light of the simple review of the recent progress in the impact studies of climate change on agriculture,i.e. understanding of the difficulties in coupling General Circulation Models (GCMs) with impact models,and knowledge of climatic and crop yield variability. Consequently,future climate impact studies should become more focused on scenarios' construction in order to get the true results. The creating techniques of climate change scenarios,including historical instrumentally based scenarios,paleoclimatic analogue scenarios,arbitrary scenarios,scenarios from GCMs' outputs and synthetically generated scenarios from Weather Geneator (WGEN),etc. are elaborated as well as their implication,requirement,advantages,disadvantages and usage scopes. Especially,the down scaling techniques in the GCMs based scenarios and the fundamentals of WGEN are discussed in detail. This revie addresses a promising method to produce reasonable climate change scenarios with a high spatial and temporal resolution by combining the information from GCMs simulation and WGEN,thus incorporating climatic variability either,and it should be developed in the future. |
| |
| Keywords: | Climate Change\ Climate Variability\ GCMs\ WGEN |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
