| 甘肃省伏旱短期气候概率预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 董安祥,张存杰,李栋梁.甘肃省伏旱短期气候概率预测[J].气象,1998,24(1):3-6. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董安祥 张存杰 李栋梁 |
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| 作者单位： | 甘肃省气象局 |
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| 摘 要： | 用ＥＯＦ和ＲＥＯＦ将甘肃省信期降水分为７个区域，并在每个区域选取一个代表站，设计出既能反映伏期降水多少，又能反映伏期旱段长度的伏旱强度指数。将伏旱强度与指数与伏旱发生的概率关系起来，通过对大气环流特征指数，地面气象要素等因子的分析，利用逐步回归分析和多级逐步判别分析方法，建立了甘肃省几个代表站的伏期干旱指数和概率预测方程，提出了集成概率预测的概念，最后给出了对伏旱概念率预测进行评估一种方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 伏旱 强度指数 概率预测 短期气候预测 降水预报 |
Probability Forecasts of Summer Drought in Gansu Province |
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| Abstract: | ummer precipitation of Gansu province is divided into seven regions by using EOF and REOF method,a representative station is selected in each region. An index of summer drought intensity is designed which indicate not only summer precipitation but also drought duration in summer. The index of summer drought intensity was combined with the summer drought probability. Summer drought probability forecast equations of representative stations were established by analyzing general circulation feature index and surface meteorological essential factors and using the method of stepwise regression analysis and stepwise discriminate analysis. The concept of assembly probability forecast is put forward. Moreover,a method evaluating summer drought probability forecasts is given. |
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| Keywords: | summer drought\ index of drought intensity\ probability forecasts |
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