| 用CAR模型作年旱涝长期天气预报的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑洪初.用CAR模型作年旱涝长期天气预报的研究[J].气象,1995,21(7):51-53. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑洪初 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西安康地区气象局 |
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| 摘 要： | 年旱涝时间序列是一动态系统。我们采用特殊的ＣＡＲＭＡ模型即带受控制项的自回归模型对动态系统进行建模。并试图用较少的状态变量来描述系统的宏观行为。观察结果认为：用３个受控变量就可以描述安康市的年旱涝演变规律，并建立了ＣＲＡ模型。用ＣＡＲ模型作年旱涝预报能达到较高的精度，特别是大旱、大涝年预报效果最佳。试用表明预报与实况的相对误差为８．７％－１２．６％。
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| 关 键 词： | 旱涝 长期预报 回归模型 天气预报 农业气象 |
The Research on Annual Drought and Long-term Flood Prediction by CAR Model |
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| Zheng Hongchu.The Research on Annual Drought and Long-term Flood Prediction by CAR Model[J].Meteorological Monthly,1995,21(7):51-53. |
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| Authors: | Zheng Hongchu |
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| Abstract: | The time series of annual drought and flood in Ankang prefecture , Shanxi province is of a dynamic system. Using the controlled auto-regression model(CAR), a special CARMA model, the system is modelled. The CAR prediction model of three controlled variables has been obtained,and it is applied to predict annual drought/flood tendency in Ankang region. Its accuracy is very well. |
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| Keywords: | rought and flood long-term prediction CAR model |
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