| 2010年西北太平洋台风预报精度评定及分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 汤杰,陈国民,余晖.2010年西北太平洋台风预报精度评定及分析[J].气象,2011,37(10):1320-1328. |
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| 作者姓名： | 汤杰 陈国民 余晖 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局上海台风研究所,中国气象局台风预报技术开放实验室,上海200030 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）（2009CB421504）、国家自然科学基金项目（40905029，40921160381）和公益性行业(气象)科研专项（GYHY201006008）共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 按照《台风业务和服务规定》的相关要求,本文对2010年中央气象台编号的14个台风（即1001～1014号西北太平洋热带气旋,以下统称为台风）的业务定位和业务预报精度进行了评定。评定结果表明：国内各家综合预报24h,48h和72h平均距离误差分别为110.0 km（1392次）、210.6 km（945次）和322.4 km（364次）,比2009年相应预报时效有一定减小。国内外各家数值模式同样本比较显示：欧洲中心数值模式（ECMWF）在不同时效路径预报中均表现最好,日本数值模式（JAPN）表现其次。相对于国内各家数值模式,上述两家国外模式的路径预报表现出一定优势。进一步分析发现我国各数值模式与ECMWF模式更大的路径预报水平差距是由于台风移动方向预报差距,而台风移动速度预报相对较好;而日本数值与ECMWF模式的差距更主要的体现在移动速度方面。我国各家模式与ECMWF数值模式初始时效（12 h和24 h）的预报差距比后续预报时效（36 h和48 h）大。随着预报时效延长,国内数值模式与ECMWF模式的预报差距逐步减小。
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| 关 键 词： | 台风 预报精度 误差分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/8/31 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2011/9/14 0:00:00 |
Precision Evaluation and Error Analysis on the Forecasts of Typhoons over the Western North Pacific in 2010 |
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| Tang Jie,Chen Guoming and Yu Hui.Precision Evaluation and Error Analysis on the Forecasts of Typhoons over the Western North Pacific in 2010[J].Meteorological Monthly,2011,37(10):1320-1328. |
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| Authors: | Tang Jie Chen Guoming and Yu Hui |
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| Institution: | Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030;Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030;Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030 |
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| Abstract: | According to the Typhoon Operation and Service Requirements, forecast errors of the 14 typhoon cases in 2010 (1001-1014) were evaluated and analyzed. Generally, the average distance errors of domestic operational stations in 24 h, 48 h and 72 h forecasts are 110.0 km (1392 times), 210.6 km (945 times) and 322.4 km (364 times) respectively. Comparing with the results of the corresponding forecasting in 2009, the average errors of typhoon track forecast in different forecast time length in 2010 are decreased in different degrees. By the homogeneous comparison between different numerical models, ECMWF dominates the best track forecast performance and the Japanese model (JAPN) is the second best in 24 h, 48 h and 72 h forecasts. And these two models show some superiority comparing with the domestic models in the typhoon track forecasts. Further analysis of the homogeneous comparison to ECMWF shows that domestic numerical models have more obvious difference in the typhoon movement direction forecast while JAPN shows larger difference in the forecast of movement speed. On the other hand, the forecast difference between the domestic models and ECMWF model seems much larger in the initial forecast time (12-24 h) than that of the later forecast time (36-48 h). In other words, the forecast differences between them are gradually reduced with the extension of forecast time. |
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| Keywords: | typhoon forecast precision error analysis |
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