| 条件价值评估法在公众气象效益评估中的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王桂芝,李廉水,黄小蓉,夏平嵩,李洁.条件价值评估法在公众气象效益评估中的应用研究[J].气象,2011,37(10):1309-1313. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王桂芝 李廉水 黄小蓉 夏平嵩 李洁 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学,南京,210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806017)、气象软科学［2010］第052号阶段性成果、江苏省高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地项目及国家自然科学基金资助项目(50578020)共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 条件价值评价法（CVM）是目前生态（环境）经济学中最重要的和应用最为广泛的公共所有物价值的一种评估方法,对自然资源价值进行量化评估方面具有独特的优势,通过问卷调查反映环境影响下的价值问题,是一种理论化极强的评价方法。现将该方法应用到公共气象服务效益评估建模中,在考虑CVM不确定性因素的前提下,对公众气象服务效益进行评估,构建公众气象服务效益评估二分Logistic模型,并与传统的自愿付费法进行比较。采用全国抽样问卷调查数据量化结果比较表明,用二分Logistic模型对全国公众气象服务效益进行定量评估会更客观。
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| 关 键 词： | 气象服务效益 条件价值评价法 自愿付费法 二分Logistic模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 7/4/2010 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2011/5/24 0:00:00 |
Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044 |
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| Wang Guizhi,Li Lianshui,Huang Xiaorong,Xia Pingsong and Li Jie.Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044[J].Meteorological Monthly,2011,37(10):1309-1313. |
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| Authors: | Wang Guizhi Li Lianshui Huang Xiaorong Xia Pingsong and Li Jie |
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| Institution: | Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044;Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044;Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044;Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044;Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044 |
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| Abstract: | Contingent valuation method (CVM) is an important value assessment method that is widely used in ecological (environmental) economics; and it has unique advantages in the quantitative assessment of the value of natural resources. By questionnaire, the CVM reflects the value under the influence of environment, and it is a theory of strong evaluation. This method is used to analyze public weather service. Considering the uncertainty, the effectiveness assessment of public weather service is conducted by establishing dichotomy Logistic model (DLM). Using national sample survey data, we compare it with the method of traditional willingness to pay. The DLM is more objective when using in a quantitative assessment of national public weather service. |
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| Keywords: | benefit of meteorological service contingent valuation method (CVM) willingness to pay dichotomy Logistic model (DLM) |
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