| 2010年12月至2011年2月T639与
ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 张亚妮,张金艳.2010年12月至2011年2月T639与
ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,2011,37(5):633-638. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张亚妮 张金艳 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象心,北京,100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章对2010年12月至2011年2月T639、ECMWF(文中简称EC)及日本(文中简称JP)数值模式的中期预报产品进行了对比分析和检验.结果表明:三家模式对大尺度环流形势演变和调整及对850hPa温度变化都有较好的预报能力.比较而言,随预报时效延长EC模式对北方地区850hPa温度的预报性能最好,而对南方地区,JP...
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| 关 键 词： | T639模式 ECMWF模式 JP模式 中期预报性能 天气学检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/3/30 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2011/4/20 0:00:00 |
The Performance Verification of Medium-Range Forecast for T639 and ECMWF and Japan Models from Dec.2010 to Feb.2011 |
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| ZHANG,Yani and ZHANG,Jinyan.The Performance Verification of Medium-Range Forecast for T639 and ECMWF and Japan Models from Dec.2010 to Feb.2011[J].Meteorological Monthly,2011,37(5):633-638. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yani and ZHANG Jinyan |
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| Institution: | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081;National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | The performance of medium range forecast is verified and compared for the models of T639, ECMWF and Japan from December 2010 to February 2011. The results show that the three models are capable of predicting the variation and adjustment of atmospheric circulation and temperature of 850 hPa successfully. In northern China, EC model has better performance than T639 and JP models in terms of predicting temperature at 850 hPa, whereas in southern China standard deviations for JP model are smallest. In southern China, correlation coefficients between initial fields and forecasts of 850 hPa temperature for the three models are all lower than those in northern China. In forecasting of south branch trough, the forecasts of JP model are stronger than its initial fields and the performance of EC model is the best. The models all predict the weak surface anticyclone, and for T639 and EC models the errors are mainly located in the northwest of the anticyclone. |
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| Keywords: | T639 model ECMWF model JP model the performance of medium range forecasting synoptic verification |
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