| 基于环流分型的广西冰雹潜势预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 农孟松,祁丽燕,黄明策,曾小团.基于环流分型的广西冰雹潜势预报研究[J].气象,2008,34(6):46-52. |
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| 作者姓名： | 农孟松 祁丽燕 黄明策 曾小团 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京,210044;广西气象台
2. 广西气象台 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用常规观测资料,在对广西4个区域冰雹气候特征分析的基础上,对造成冰雹的环流形势分为华北低槽型、高原东部低槽型和南支槽型.检索出数值预报产品有物理意义的预报因子,采取判别分析法和指标叠套法制作广西冰雹的潜势预报.结果表明,指标叠套法优于判别分析法.基于数值模式输出场的参数估计,对于不同参数设置、不同阈值范围来制作广西冰雹落区的概率预报试验,过程预报有一定效果,但落区预报方法还有待干进一步改进.
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| 关 键 词： | 冰雹 环流分型 潜势预报 参数估计 阈值 概率预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008/2/19 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008年2月19日 |
Research on Hail Potential Forecast Happened in Guangxi Based on Circulation Classification |
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| Nong Mengsong,Qi Liyan,Huang Mingce and Zeng Xiaotuan.Research on Hail Potential Forecast Happened in Guangxi Based on Circulation Classification[J].Meteorological Monthly,2008,34(6):46-52. |
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| Authors: | Nong Mengsong Qi Liyan Huang Mingce and Zeng Xiaotuan |
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| Abstract: | By using routine observation data, the climate characteristics of the hail in fo
ur areas of Guangxi are analyzed. The circulation patterns that causes hail are c
lassified to be three kinds: Huabei trough, east plateau trough, south branch troug
h. By searching the forecast factors with physics meaning from numerical forecas
t products, the potential forecast of hail is produced by using the discriminate
analytical method and index accumulating method. The results show that the inde
x accumulating method is better than the discriminate analytical method. Based o
n the parameter estimation of numerical model output fields, different threshold
s for different parameters are set up to produce the probability forecast of the
falling area for the hail happened in Guangxi. Process forecast has some effect
while the falling area forecast needs to be improved. |
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