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| 客观预报方程中因子的选取及应用效果分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 许美玲,段旭,丁圣.客观预报方程中因子的选取及应用效果分析[J].气象,2009,35(9):112-118. |
| 作者姓名： | 许美玲 段旭 丁圣 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 云南省气象台,昆明,650034 2. 云南省气象科学研究所 3. 云南省玉溪市气象局 |
| 基金项目： | 云南省科技攻关及高新技术计划2006SG25 |
| 摘 要： | 利用因子选取及方程建立人机交互平台,建立了云南省125个气象站的降水、温度客观要素预报方程.对比试验表明,绝大多数组合因子都优于单因子,组合因子预报方程的质量普遍比单因子预报方程好.预报检验结果显示,干季的降水预报尚未达到可用程度,雨季小雨及中雨、大雨的预报有一定业务指导意义,对于反映中小尺度系统的暴雨天气预报效果较差,在因子的选择上还需要做大量细致的工作.温度预报具有一定的参考价值,但还有待进一步改进. |
| 关 键 词： | 客观预报 组合因子 效果分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008/12/2 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2009/2/18 0:00:00 |
Factor Selection and Analysis on Application Effects of the Objective Forecasting Equation |
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| Xu Meiling,Duan Xu and Ding Sheng.Factor Selection and Analysis on Application Effects of the Objective Forecasting Equation[J].Meteorological Monthly,2009,35(9):112-118. | |
| Authors: | Xu Meiling Duan Xu and Ding Sheng |
| Institution: | 1.Yunnan Meteorological Observatory;Kunming 650034;2.Meteorological Sciences Institute of Yunnan Province;3.Yuxi Meteorological Observatory |
| Abstract: | The human-computer interaction platform and element forecasting equation of 125 weather stations in Yunnan Province which included the elements of rainfall and temperature were set up by using factor selection and prediction equation.Comparison tests indicated that vast majority of combined factors were more efficient than single factor,and the equation forecasting quality by using combined factors was better than that by using single factor.The forecasting test results showed that the precipitation forecas... |
| Keywords: | objective forecasting combined factor effect analysis |
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