| 逐步带逼近法在热带所旋路径预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 毛绍荣.逐步带逼近法在热带所旋路径预报中的应用[J].气象,1996,22(12):27-30. |
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| 作者姓名： | 毛绍荣 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州中心气象台 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对逐步逼近法１９９５年试验情况与国内外预报台的综合预报以及与国内一些客观预报方法的比较分析，总结出该方法对移动路径明显转折的热带气旋有较好的预报能力，４８小时平均误差达到３００ｋｍ以内，特别是当热带气旋的移速发生明显变化时，该方法较之其它客观方法有明显的优越性。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 路径 气旋预报 |
Application of A Step-by-step Approximation Method in Forecasting Tropical Storm's Motion |
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| Abstract: | By comparing experimental results of a step-by-step approximation method with tropical storm forecasts issued by other weather services in China and some international services, and with experimental outputs from some domestic objective forecasting methods during tropical storms season in 1995,it is pointed out that the step-by-step approximation method has good ability in forecasting recurvature of tropical storm's track. The 48 hours mean distance error of the results was less than 300km. The method has more advantages than other objective forecasting methods especially when a tropical storm changed its motion speed markedly. |
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| Keywords: | tropical storm break point motion speed |
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