| 2008年12月2—6日寒潮天气过程分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 牛若芸,乔林,陈涛,孔期,张亚妮.2008年12月2—6日寒潮天气过程分析[J].气象,2009,35(12):74-82. |
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| 作者姓名： | 牛若芸 乔林 陈涛 孔期 张亚妮 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心,北京,100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用常规天气观测资料、美国NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°网格点逐6h再分析资料,采用天气学原理和天气动力学诊断分析方法,对2008年12月2-6日寒潮天气过程进行分析和总结.结果表明:此次寒潮天气过程出现在欧洲脊强烈发展并缓慢东移、北半球中高纬环流形势由纬向型向经向型转换过程中.西脊前强偏北风带南移、横槽涡度西部大于东部、横槽前东南方的负变高和横槽后部的暖平流正变高等促使横槽转竖;南掉极涡与转竖低槽合并后,低槽明显向南加深,冷空气势力显著加强并开始向南爆发;自西脊西北部入侵小槽压迫高脊向东南方向移动并逐渐崩溃,脊前偏北气流逆转为西北气流,引导冷空气大举向南爆发,造成了此次寒潮天气过程.强盛的冷平流是造成气温骤降的主要原因.强风的形成除与冷平流侵入有关外,还与高空动量下传的增加密切相关.山东半岛降雨和强降雪的环流成因和物理量特征存在明显差异,降雨为冷暖空气交汇所致;强降雪则是冷平流、海陆分布差异和地形抬升共同影响的结果.T639、ECMWF和日本等3种数值模式均对这次亚欧中高纬大气环流的演变和调整均做出了较准确的预报,尤以ECMWF模式预报性能最好.
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| 关 键 词： | 寒潮 环流形势 强冷平流 暴雪 成因分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009/3/31 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2009/5/20 0:00:00 |
Analysis of the Cold Wave During 2-6 December 2008 |
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| Niu Ruoyun,Qiao Lin,Chen Tao,Kong Qi and Zhang Yani.Analysis of the Cold Wave During 2-6 December 2008[J].Meteorological Monthly,2009,35(12):74-82. |
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| Authors: | Niu Ruoyun Qiao Lin Chen Tao Kong Qi and Zhang Yani |
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| Institution: | National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081;National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081;National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081;National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081;National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the conventional surface and upper data, NCEP 1°×1° reanal
ysis data of every 6 h, in terms of the synoptic principle and the dynamic diag
nosis, the cold wave during 2 6 December 2008 has been analyzed. The resu
lts are as follows: The cold wave occurred when the European ridge developed in
tensely and moved eastwards, and the zonal circulation changed into the meridion
al one in the middle high latitude in the Northern Hemisphere. The northerly wi
nd in front of the ridge moved southwards. The vorticity of the transverse tr
ough in the west was larger than that in the east. Both the negative variation o
f the heightlocated in the southeast
part in front of the trough and the posit
ive variation of height behind the trough were favorable to t
he revising of the transverse trough. The polar vortex and the revising transver
se trough get together causing the deepening of the trough. Meanwhile, the cold
air strengthened and invaded to the south. The ridge impulsed by the trough move
d southeastwards and broke down gradually. Afterwards, the northerly wind change
d into the northwesterly wind, which led to this cold wave process. The main re
a
son for the rapid air temperature decrease was the intense cold advection. The f
ormation of the strong wind was correlated with not only the cold advection but
also the upper disseminated momentum. There were obvious differences of the circ
ulation and characteristics of the physical quantities between the rainfall and
the heavy snowfall in the Shandong Peninsula. The rainfall is induced by cold w
arm air converging, the heavy snowfall is caused by cold flow and difference of
sea
land distribution and orographic uplift. T639 model and ECMWF and Japan models
, espec
ially for ECMWF model, have good performances for the evolvement and adjustment
of atmospheric circulation situation in the Asia middle and high latitude area. |
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| Keywords: | cold wave circulation pattern strong cold advection snowstorm causation analysis |
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