| 2011年3—5月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 蔡芗宁.2011年3—5月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,2011,37(8):1026-1030. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蔡芗宁 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心,北京,100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品,对2011年3—5月T639模式96小时预报产品进行了天气学检验,并与ECMWF、日本模式进行了对比分析。结果表明：三种模式均对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。综合来看,ECMWF模式对各系统及要素的预报最接近实况;日本模式和T639模式次之。另外,选取了2011年4月28-30日的沙尘天气个例进行分析,发现日本模式对于引发此次沙尘天气的地面高压系统的中期预报指示意义最好。
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| 关 键 词： | T639模式 中期天气预报 天气学检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/6/27 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 7/6/2011 12:00:00 AM |
Performance Verification of the Medium-Range Forecasting for T639,ECMWF and Japan Models from March to May 2011 |
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| CAI Xiangning.Performance Verification of the Medium-Range Forecasting for T639,ECMWF and Japan Models from March to May 2011[J].Meteorological Monthly,2011,37(8):1026-1030. |
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| Authors: | CAI Xiangning |
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| Institution: | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve the ability to use the products of T639, a synoptic verification on its medium range forecasting in Spring 2011 is made in comparison with the NWP of ECMWF and Japan models. The results show that the three models have good performances on the aspect of predicting the large scale circulation evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude areas. As a whole, the ECMWF model is better in forecasting most weather systems compared with the T639 and Japan models. Taking the sandstorm process during the period of April 28-30, 2011 as a case, it is found that the Japan model is more effective than the other two models in medium range forecasting of strong surface wind, causing this sand and dust weather process. |
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| Keywords: | T639 model medium-range forecasting synoptic verification |
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