| 长江下游东段高水位的天气类型及预报服务决策 |
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| 引用本文： | 曹乃和,杜永红,钱国萍,陈爱玉,陈新育,周昌云,刘娟.长江下游东段高水位的天气类型及预报服务决策[J].气象,2006,32(11):55-60. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曹乃和 杜永红 钱国萍 陈爱玉 陈新育 周昌云 刘娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 江苏省如皋市气象局,226572
2. 江苏省如皋市水务局 |
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| 摘 要： | 长江下游东段高水位是该区域汛期常见的水害之一。针对长江游东段近13年高水位日，利用同期常规的水文资料和天气图等资料，以天气学原理为基础，运用风暴潮原理和农历潮汐等相关理论，分析高水位成因，探寻引发高水位的主要因子。结果表明：（1）东段高水位发生在农历潮汐高潮期，直接受其高潮位影响；（2）引发高水位的天气系统是台风和西风槽；（3）西风槽引发长江上中游洪水东泄通过东段；台风行近大陆架其强制孤立波使海面急剧上升，台风暴潮倒灌入侵东段；（4）高水位与本地降水关系不密切。
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| 关 键 词： | 风暴潮 台风 高水位 预报服务决策 |
| 收稿时间： | 03 31 2006 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-03-312006-09-02 |
Causation Analyses of High Water Level in the East Part of the Yangtze River and Its Services of Forecasting Decisions |
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| Cao Naihe,Du Yonghong,Qian Guoping,Chen Aiyu,Chen Xinyu,Zhou Changyun,Liu Juan.Causation Analyses of High Water Level in the East Part of the Yangtze River and Its Services of Forecasting Decisions[J].Meteorological Monthly,2006,32(11):55-60. |
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| Authors: | Cao Naihe Du Yonghong Qian Guoping Chen Aiyu Chen Xinyu Zhou Changyun Liu Juan |
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| Institution: | 1. Rugao Meteorological Office, Jiangsu Province, Rugao 226572; 2. Rugao Hydrography Office, Jiangsu Province |
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| Abstract: | The high water level is one of the flood disasters found frequently in the east part of the Yangtze River.Aimed to high water level days in the latest 13 years,the causes for high water level and the main factors are analyzed using the hydrologic data and synoptic chart on the basis of synoptic theory,the lunar tide theory and the storm tide theory etc.The results are as follows:(1)The high water level in the east of Yangtze River happens during the peak periods of the lunar tide and is directly affected by the high tide level.(2)Typhoon and west wind trough are the weather systems leading to the high water level.(3)The flood from the upstream Changjiang River induced by the west wind trough discharges eastwards passing the east part of the river;the solitary wave forced by the typhoon near the continental shelf makes the sea surface rise severely,and the back-flows of the storm surge intrudes the east part of the river.(4)There is no significant relationship between the high water level and the local precipitation. |
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| Keywords: | storm tide typhoon high water level services of forecasting decisions |
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