首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     检索      

北京地区SARS与气象条件关系分析
引用本文:叶殿秀,杨贤为,张强.北京地区SARS与气象条件关系分析[J].气象,2003,29(10):42-45.
作者姓名:叶殿秀  杨贤为  张强
作者单位:1. 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京,100081
2. 国家气候中心
摘    要:根据北京地区2003年4月21日~5月20日逐日SARS发病人数序列,用正交多项式法拟合发病人数的趋势变化,将波动量(实际发病人数与趋势量之差)与前期气象因子进行相关分析,结果表明,该波动量与9~10天前的最高气温、气温日较差、相对湿度等因子显著相关,在此基础上,建立的回归估计模型能较好地拟合逐日发病人数的波动实况。

关 键 词:北京  SARS  气象条件  传染性非典型肺炎  正交多项式  气象因子  回归估计模型

An Analysis of the Relationship between SARS and Meteorological Conditions in Beijing Area
Ye Dianxiu,Yang Xianwei,Zhang Qiang.An Analysis of the Relationship between SARS and Meteorological Conditions in Beijing Area[J].Meteorological Monthly,2003,29(10):42-45.
Authors:Ye Dianxiu  Yang Xianwei  Zhang Qiang
Abstract:Based on the series of daily SARS incident numbers from April 21 to May 20,2003,in Beijing area, the vacillating measurements affected by meteorological condition are separated from total tendency, with orthogonal polynomial methods. The results of correlation analysis show that they are significantly related with daily maximum temperature, daily range and relative humidity ahead of 8 to 9 days. On this basis, the regression estimation model can perfectly fit historic series of daily incidence fluctuation of this disease.
Keywords:SARS  orthogonal polynomial  meteorological condition  regression estimation model
本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录!
点击此处可从《气象》浏览原始摘要信息
点击此处可从《气象》下载免费的PDF全文
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号