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区域性地质灾害气象预报方法研究
引用本文:薛建军,徐晶,张芳华,牛若芸,张金艳,杨元琴.区域性地质灾害气象预报方法研究[J].气象,2005,31(10):24-27.
作者姓名:薛建军  徐晶  张芳华  牛若芸  张金艳  杨元琴
作者单位:国家气象中心,北京100081
摘    要:从气象的角度,基于对全国地质灾害预警区域的划分,利用历史地质灾害记录以及历史气象资料,分区建立了全国范围的区域气象潜势预报模型,并从2003年6月1日开始投入业务应用。总体预报服务效果较好,收到了较好的社会效益。同时还要进一步加强科学研究,提高科技含量,优化预报模型。

关 键 词:地质灾害  区域  预报模型

Study on Forecast of Regional Meteorological Geognosy Disaster
Xue Jianjun, Xu Jing, Zhang Fanghua, Niu Ruoyun, Zhang Jinyan, Yang Yuanqin.Study on Forecast of Regional Meteorological Geognosy Disaster[J].Meteorological Monthly,2005,31(10):24-27.
Authors:Xue Jianjun  Xu Jing  Zhang Fanghua  Niu Ruoyun  Zhang Jinyan  Yang Yuanqin
Institution:National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081
Abstract:Based on geographic, geologic, as well as climatic background, whole China was divided into 28 geognosy disaster warning regions. In addition, using historical geognosy disaster records and related meteorological data, regional meteorological geognosy disaster forecast model is developed for each region. Since July 1,2003, the models have been put into operational forecast and have a good overall forecast and service effect. For further development, the forecast model should be optimized with the help of related scientific research.
Keywords:geognosy disaster region forecast model
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