| 基于非对称CARCH模型的北京气温短期波动规律分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘鑫.基于非对称CARCH模型的北京气温短期波动规律分析[J].气象,2011,37(1):103-106. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘鑫 |
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| 作者单位： | 中央民族大学,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 中央民族大学211项目(No.021211030312)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了研究北京市气温资料的短期波动特征,使用非对称CARCH模型对北京市1952-2006年期间日日平均气温、日最低气温和日最高气温进行了建模,结果表明北京市气温总体上具有上升趋势;但日最高气温、日平均气温上升幅度有限,日最低气温上升幅度较大;日最高气温、日平均气温波动幅度有限,日最低气温波动幅度较大;升温会使气温整体的...
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| 关 键 词： | 非对称CARCH模型 气温 短期波动 |
| 收稿时间： | 9/7/2009 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2010/7/28 0:00:00 |
Micro-Aspect Analysis on Beijing's Temperature Change Based on Asymmetrical CARCH Model |
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| LIU,Xin.Micro-Aspect Analysis on Beijing's Temperature Change Based on Asymmetrical CARCH Model[J].Meteorological Monthly,2011,37(1):103-106. |
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| Authors: | LIU Xin |
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| Institution: | LIU Xin Minzu University of China,Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | In order to study the microscopic features of Beijing's temperature data,an asymmetrical CARCH model is set up for Beijing's daily average temperature data,daily minimum temperature data and daily maximum temperature data during 1952-2006.The results show that Beijing's temperature has a rising trend overall.However,daily maximum temperature and daily average temperature will rise in a limited range,and daily minimum temperature will rise in a larger extent;the changing ranges of daily maximum temperature a... |
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| Keywords: | asymmetrical CARCH model temperature micro-aspect analysis |
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