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| 一种温度集合预报产品释用方法的初步研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 陈法敬,矫梅燕,陈静.一种温度集合预报产品释用方法的初步研究[J].气象,2011,37(1):14-20. |
| 作者姓名： | 陈法敬 矫梅燕 陈静 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京,210044 2. 中国气象局,北京,100081 3. 国家气象中心,北京,100081 |
| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200706001,GYHY200906007); 国家自然科学基金面上项目(41075035)共同资助 |
| 摘 要： | 数值天气预报技术与能力在不断地发展与提高,集合预报是数值预报发展中的一个热点.集合预报产品所提供的大量预报信息,需要通过合适的产品释用处理来传递给用户,因此对集合预报产品进行解释与应用是实现其实用价值的一个重要环节.选取武汉站00:00 UTC地面气温(T2m)作为预报量,利用其历史观测资料及2008年1月份TIGGE... |
| 关 键 词： | 集合预报 预报不确定性 概率预报 贝叶斯输出处理器BPO |
| 收稿时间： | 2010/3/13 0:00:00 |
A New Scheme of Calibration of Ensemble Forecast Products Based on Bayesian Processor of Output and Its Study Results for Temperature Prediction |
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| CHEN Fajing,JIAO Meiyan and CHEN Jing.A New Scheme of Calibration of Ensemble Forecast Products Based on Bayesian Processor of Output and Its Study Results for Temperature Prediction[J].Meteorological Monthly,2011,37(1):14-20. | |
| Authors: | CHEN Fajing JIAO Meiyan and CHEN Jing |
| Institution: | CHEN Fajing~1 JIAO Meiyan~2 CHEN Jing~3 1 College of Atmospheric Sciences.Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology.Nanjing 210044 2 China Meteorological Administration.Beijing 100081 3 National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081 |
| Abstract: | Numerical weather prediction(NWP) techniques and ability are developing constantly and the ensemble prediction is a very important part of NWP.An appropriate interpretation process is needed to convey the mass information provided by ensemble prediction to users,thus the interpretation and application of ensemble prediction products are important to realize their utilitarian value.The 00:00 UTC surface temperature at Wuhan Station is selected as the predictand,and its historical observation data as well as ... |
| Keywords: | ensemble prediction forecasting uncertainty probabilistic forecast BPO(Bayesian Processor of Output) |
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