| 百年来上海、北京气候突变的初步分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李月洪,张正秋.百年来上海、北京气候突变的初步分析[J].气象,1991,17(10):15-20. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李月洪 张正秋 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院
(李月洪)，中国气象科学研究院(张正秋) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文应用Mann-Kendall方法对1873—1989年上海、北京的气温、降水时间序列进行了突变检验。其结果表明,上海、北京的百年气温分别在1932年和1919年出现冷转暖的气候突变。同时,还判别出上海降水在1906年发生突变,其后进入一个相对多雨时段。北京降水突变在1903年,而后进入一个相对少雨时段。另外,还用其它方法对突变点加以验证说明。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候 变化 分析 上海 北京 |
A preliminary analysis on abrupt climatic change in Shanghai and Beijing for the last 100 years |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, some abrupt changes of the air temperature and precipitation from 1873 to 1989 in Shanghai and Beijing have been tested using Mann-Kendall method. It is showed that the temperature series in Shanghai and Beijing contained abrupt changes from cool to warm in 1932 and 1919, respectively. Meanwhile, it is found that the abrupt change of precipitation in Shanghai occurred in 1906, hereafter the precipitation become more. The abrupt change of precipitation in Beijing occurred in 1903 which was a turn from wet to dry. In addition, other methods have also been used to vertify the points of abrupt changes. |
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