| “9.18”川西北暴雨过程的数值预报与试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 何光碧,肖玉华,顾清源.“9.18”川西北暴雨过程的数值预报与试验[J].气象,2002,28(8):19-23. |
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| 作者姓名： | 何光碧 肖玉华 顾清源 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川省气象台,成都,610072 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用成都区域中心ETA坐标模式，对2001年9月18－21日发生在四川盆地西北部的暴雨过程作数值预报试验，显示出对大暴雨过程的预报能力。模式预报对此降水过程雨区的移动、稳定、减弱趋势有较好的反应，但降水强度预报偏弱，且落区有偏差。数值试验揭示了降水前期对流层中、低层的西南、东南气流对降水的重要作用，而北方冷空气的强弱对此影响不明显。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨 数值预报 数值试验 2001年 9月 ETA坐标模式 四川盆地 |
A Case of the Numerical Forecast and Experiment on the Heavy Rainfall Process in the Northwestern Sichuan Basin |
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| He Guangbi,Xiao Yuhua,Gu Qingyuan.A Case of the Numerical Forecast and Experiment on the Heavy Rainfall Process in the Northwestern Sichuan Basin[J].Meteorological Monthly,2002,28(8):19-23. |
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| Authors: | He Guangbi Xiao Yuhua Gu Qingyuan |
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| Abstract: | The ETA model of the Chengdu Regional Meteorological Center has its function of forecasting the heavy rainfall occurring in the Northwestern Sichuan Basin on 18 Sept. of 2001. The model can reveal the movement and stability of the rainfall area ,and the tendency of the alleviation in rainfall intensity except a little weakness in the intensity and difference in the rainfall area. The numerical experiment shows that during the early stage of the process, southwest and southeast air flow in the middle and lower troposphere are very important to the rainfall while this is not true for the cold air from north. |
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| Keywords: | heavy rainfall numerical forecast experiment |
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