| 气候适宜度在华北冬小麦发育期预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李昊宇,王建林,郑昌玲,宋迎波.气候适宜度在华北冬小麦发育期预报中的应用[J].气象,2012,38(12):1554-1559. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李昊宇 王建林 郑昌玲 宋迎波 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学,南京,210044
2. 国家气象中心,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY200906021）和农业科技成果转化资金项目（2009GB24160498）共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用华北地区39个代表站，1971-2011年逐日最高温度、最低温度、降水量、日照时数、土壤水分、冬小麦发育期和农业气象指标等资料，在考虑_十壤水分和降水对冬小麦不同生长发育阶段的不同影响基础上，建立了冬小麦水分适宜度计算方法，结合温度适宜度和日照适宜度，构建了冀、鲁、豫冬小麦气候适宜度评价模型。以冬小麦气候适宜度为预报因子，建立了冀、鲁、豫3省9个区域冬小麦发育期预报模型。模型回代检验结果表明，不同区域模型的模拟天数与实际天数的平均误差均在1-2天之间，不同发育阶段模型的模拟天数与实际天数的平均误差均在4天以内；模型预报检验表明，各区域不同发育阶段的预报天数与实际天数的误差大多数在3天以下。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候适宜度 冬小麦 发育期 预报模型 应用 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/11/11 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2012/3/26 0:00:00 |
The Development Period Prediction of Winter Wheat Based on Climatic Suitability in North China |
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| LI Haoyu,WANG Jianlin,ZHENG Changling and SONG Yingbo.The Development Period Prediction of Winter Wheat Based on Climatic Suitability in North China[J].Meteorological Monthly,2012,38(12):1554-1559. |
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| Authors: | LI Haoyu WANG Jianlin ZHENG Changling and SONG Yingbo |
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| Abstract: | Using the data of daily highest temperature, the lowest temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, soil moisture and winter wheat development period, agrometeorological indexes, and considering the different effects of soil moisture and precipitation on winter wheat different growth stage, the calculation method for winter wheat moisture suitability is established. And the paper further constructs a climate suitability model of winter wheat combined with the calculation methods of winter wheat moisture suitability, temperature suitability and sunshine suitability. Based on the forecasting factor of winter wheat climate suitability, the forecast model of winter wheat development period is established. The simulation results indicate that the average errors between the simulation days from models of different districts and actual days are 1-2 days, the average errors between simulation days from models of different development period and actual days are within 4 days. The forecast and test demonstrate that average errors between simulation days from models of different districts or development periods and actual days are within three days. The results show that the operational applications of these models are possible. |
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| Keywords: | climatic suitability winter wheat development period prediction model application |
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