| 诊断分析在数值预报产品释用中的探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘景涛,李喜仓,李运绵,孙永刚.诊断分析在数值预报产品释用中的探讨[J].气象,1995,21(12):35-37. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘景涛 李喜仓 李运绵 孙永刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 内蒙古自治区气象台，呼和浩特 010051;内蒙古自治区气象台，呼和浩特 010051;内蒙古自治区气象台，呼和浩特 010051;内蒙古自治区气象台，呼和浩特 010051 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对地方性天气预报特点，根据现有数值预报产品及实时控空资料的接收情况，作者利用中尺度数值预报模式ＭＭ４引入了中尺度信息，提出了一个实际可行的夏季降水预报方案，以求提高区域范围内具有明显突发性对流降水的预报能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 中尺度 诊断分析 数值预报产品 天气预报 |
The Preliminary Study on the Application of Diagnostic Analysis to the Numerical Prediction Products |
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| Abstract: | In view of the characteristics of local weather prediction, the available numerical prediction products as well as the real-time radiosonde data, a practical scheme for predicting the summer precipitation is presented by introducing mesoscale data to the mesoscale numerical prediction model MM4 in order to increase the accuracy of prediction to the unexpected convective precipitation. The diagnostic field of the daily physical factors were calculated by using MM4 model. These calculation results are added into the numerical prediction production of the ECMWF and obtained 41 prediction fields, then the precipitation prediction equation is developed by using the canonical correlation analysis,successive regression as well as discriminatory analysis methods. |
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| Keywords: | mesoscale diagnostic analysis numerical prediction product prediction equation |
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