| 我们未来的气候:人类的干预有多大? |
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| 引用本文： | 任国玉.我们未来的气候:人类的干预有多大?[J].气象,2003,29(3):3-7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任国玉 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气候中心,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“十五”科技攻关项目课题“全球与中国气候变化的检测和预测 (2 0 0 1BA6 11B 0 1)”资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 对有关气候变化的观测事实和可能原因的研究做了简要回顾和总结，对21世纪人类活动和自然因子对气候系统的可能影响做了扼要讨论。近20余年全球气候变化科学有明显的进步，但要对21世纪气候趋势做出可靠预测，还需要在过去气候演化历史和成因、全球碳循环、气候系统模式与模拟、土地利用和土地覆盖变化的影响以及气候系统的稳定性等方面开展深入研究，以便进一步减少科学上的不确定性。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候系统 全球气候变化 气候预测 土地利用 土地覆盖 |
Our Future Climate: To What Extent Will HumanActivities Interfere with It? |
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| Ren Guoyu.Our Future Climate: To What Extent Will HumanActivities Interfere with It?[J].Meteorological Monthly,2003,29(3):3-7. |
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| Authors: | Ren Guoyu |
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| Abstract: | Significant progresses have been made in global climate change science for the past 20 years. However, there is still a long way for scientists to harvest the ripe fruit. The current argument over detection of and attribution to climate change could not be ignored, and the projection of anthropogenic climate change trend given by the IPCC TAR would be surely subject to modification with the prospective progress in the exciting field of modern earth sciences. These progresses should, and most probably will, be made in history of earth climate change, global carbon cycle, climate system model and climate modeling, land use and land cover change and the effect on regional or even sub continental climates, and stability of earth climate system. |
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| Keywords: | Climate system Global climate change Climate projection |
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