| 福建汛期降水主分量逐步回归预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈德花,陈创买,周学鸣,孙琼博,韦晋.福建汛期降水主分量逐步回归预测模型研究[J].气象,2013,39(9):1190-1196. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈德花 陈创买 周学鸣 孙琼博 韦晋 |
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| 作者单位： | 厦门市气象台，厦门 361012;中山大学大气科学系，广州 510275;厦门市气象台，厦门 361012;厦门市气象台，厦门 361012;厦门市气象台，厦门 361012 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(气象)科研专项（GYHY20110133 02）和福建省气象局开放式基金（2012K4）共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 建立福建汛期降水量气候场的主分量逐步回归预测模型，通过预测福建汛期降水量气候场的主分量来实现对福建汛期降水量场的预测。选取北半球500 hPa高度场、太平洋海温场、北半球海平面气压场等含不同区域不同季节的诸多因子场的前若干主分量因子作为预测因子。计算分析了福建汛期降水场的主分量分布特征和分型特点。利用相关筛选和双重检验逐步回归方法，建立福建汛期降水场与多个因子场的关系，建立主分量的预测方程。通过对2012年福建汛期降水的预报，发现该模型对福建汛期降水的趋势和分布有较好的预测能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候统计预测，主分量分析，双重检验逐步回归，福建汛期降水 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012/10/20 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 5/9/2013 12:00:00 AM |
PC Stepwise Regression Forecasting Model of Climatic Field of Fujian Flood Period Rainfall |
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| CHEN Dehu,CHEN Chuangmai,ZHOU Xueming,SUN Qiongbo and WEI Jin.PC Stepwise Regression Forecasting Model of Climatic Field of Fujian Flood Period Rainfall[J].Meteorological Monthly,2013,39(9):1190-1196. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Dehu CHEN Chuangmai ZHOU Xueming SUN Qiongbo and WEI Jin |
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| Abstract: | A principal component stepwise regression prediction model of climatic field for the flood period rainfall in Fujian Province is established. The model predicts the precipitation of flood period in Fujian through predicting the principal component of the climatic field of that period. This study takes the 500 hPa height and the sea surface temperature of Pacific Ocean and the sea level pressure in the Northern Hemisphere and many principal component factors in various seasons and regions as predictors, calculating and analyzing the distribution and types of the principal components of the flood period rainfall in Fujian. Through correlation screening and double test stepwise regression, a prediction equation is developed for the principal component of the Fujian flood period rainfall. By applying this model to predicting the flood period precipitation in Fujian in 2012, it is found that the model is capable to predict the precipitation and its distribution in the flood period in Fujian. |
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| Keywords: | climatic statistical prediction principal component analysis double test step wise regression flood period rainfall in Fujian |
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