| 台风暴雨天气预报的现状和展望 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘还珠.台风暴雨天气预报的现状和展望[J].气象,1998,24(7):5-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘还珠 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 将我国天气预报业务中台风暴雨的预报方法归纳为４种类型，它们是天气概念模型、数值预报产品动力释用、相似法和应用卫星、雷达探测资料等方法。以典型实例说明了每种方法的基本思路和大概情况。由此分析了我国在预报业务中所具有的优势和存在着的薄弱环节。依照近期的计划和动向对我国天气预报业务发展作了展望
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| 关 键 词： | 台风 暴雨 预报 |
The Current State and Prospect of the Operational Weather Forecast for Tropical Cyclone and Torrential Rain |
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| Abstract: | The weather forecast methods for tropical cyclone and torrential rain in routine operation in China were grouped into four categories: the weather conceptual model,the dynamic interpretation of numerical weather prediction products,the analogue method,and the application of SATEM and Radar echo data. The basic idea and brief progress for each of the methods are explained by using typical examples.
Further more,the advantages and shortcomes in our operational weather forecasts are analized. The prospects of the field was also estimated based upon several well established long term plans and programmes. |
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| Keywords: | tropical cyclone torrential rain operational weather forecast |
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