Iran's precipitation analysis using synoptic modeling of major teleconnection forces (MTF) |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Climatology, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran;2. Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran;1. Hydraulics Division, Department of Civil Engineering, KU Leuven, Kasteelpark Arenberg 40, BE-3001 Leuven, Belgium;2. Young Researchers and Elite Club, Hamedan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iran;3. Department of Water Engineering, Ardabil Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ardabil, Iran |
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| Abstract: | In this relatively unprecedented study, the effects of thirty-four leading teleconnection Patterns (indices) of atmospheric circulation- on regional-scale for the Middle East- along with precipitation over Iran have been investigated. Different types of data including teleconnection Indices from NOAA (NCEP/NCAR, BOM) and monthly precipitation data from thirty-six synoptic stations of Iran were applied. The data have been investigated with various types of statistical and synoptical methods. The results indicate that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most effective factor and it could possibly influence the spatiotemporal variation of precipitation on all types of climate regimes in Iran. ENSO (nino3.4), The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and The Arctic oscillation (AO) are known as the first three important indices, determined by Principal component analysis (PCA) method. The research has clarified that a combination of warm phase of ENSO and a predominant Southeastern (SE) wind over the Indian Ocean can result in a significant moisture transport from the Indian Ocean to the Middle East and to Iran; a combination of cold phase of ENSO and a predominant Northwestern (NW) wind over the Indian Ocean can be followed by a widespread drought over the Middle East and Iran. The results also indicate that a combination of the first three important above-mentioned indices and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can provide a much better explanation for spatial and temporal variation of precipitation of Iran. Finally, the results of this study will enable us to present a new approach and new graphical-conceptual modeling, called "Teleconnection-Synoptic Method (TSM)"to clarify the underlying mechanism that can explain the spatial and temporal variations of global atmospheric circulation and precipitation of Iran. According to the correlation of different patterns with precipitation, the strongest relationships are related to the Scandinavia Index (SCN), Pressure Change in East Pacific (dPEPac) and Trade Wind Index at the 850 hPa (TrdWnd850), respectively. |
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| Keywords: | Teleconnection ENSO Iran Climate variation Conceptual modeling |
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