Evaluation of different versions of NCUM global model for simulation of track and intensity of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal |
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| Institution: | 1. International CLIVAR Monsoon Project Office, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune 411 008, India;2. Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam 530 003, India;1. Department of Mathematics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA;2. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA;3. Department of Mathematics and Center for Atmosphere Ocean Science, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, NY 10012, USA;1. Climate Dynamics Research Center (CDRC) of the College of Atmospheric Sciences/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of the Ministry of Education (ELME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 219 Ningliu Road, Nanjing, 210044, China;2. Hubei Province Public Meteorological Service Center, Wuhan, 430074, China;1. Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Group, Earth, Ocean, Atmosphere, Planetary Sciences and Applications Area, Space Applications Centre, Indian Space Research Organisation, Ahmedabad, India;2. Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia |
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| Abstract: | The global UK Met office Unified Model (UM) is currently operational at National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), the global model named as NCUM. An inter-comparison of two different versions of NCUM has been carried out for simulating the track and intensity of Tropical Cyclones (TCs), which formed over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). For this purpose, two series of numerical experiments named as NCUM25 (New Dynamical core with NCUM N512 resolution) and NCUM17 (ENDGame core with NCUM N768 resolution and upgraded physics and data assimilation scheme) are carried out with seven different initial conditions (ICs) for two TCs. The results suggested that the location, intensity, and vertical structure of the TCs are reasonably well predicted by the NCUM17 over the NCUM25. The Direct Position Error (DPE) and landfall error of TCs are reduced in the NCUM17 in comparison to the NCUM25 for all initial conditions. The mean DPEs and intensity error are reduced by 21–41% and 18–21% in NCUM17 over NCUM25 in both the cases respectively. Improvements in mean landfall position errors are shown to range from 43 to 65% in the NCUM17 as compared to the NCUM25. The mean statistical skill scores for rainfall are considerably improved in NCUM17. |
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| Keywords: | NCUM global model Tropical cyclones Dynamical core Statistical skill scores |
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