| 大连地区闪电活动时空特征分析及雷击风险度综合指数预测研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 陈宇,王蕾,杨超,张莹.大连地区闪电活动时空特征分析及雷击风险度综合指数预测研究[J].气象科学,2017,37(6):832-838. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 陈宇 王蕾 杨超 张莹 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国气象局 公共气象服务中心, 北京 100081,大连市气象局, 辽宁 大连 116000,海峡气象开放实验室, 福建 厦门 361012,中国科学院 遥感与数字地球研究所, 北京 100101 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（41601386）；大连市气象局自立基金项目（DLQK201313） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 本文利用辽宁省大连市2007年1月—2011年12月连续5 a的闪电监测数据,分析了大连地区闪电频数和强度的时空分布特征,并基于雷电频次和强度构建雷电危险度综合指数预测模型。研究结果表明,大连地区闪电高发期集中在6—8月,该段时间内闪电数超过全年闪电总数的80%;6、7月雷电明显集中于午后和夜间,而从8月开始雷电发生时间向凌晨时段集中,午后明显减少,夜间闪电次数略高于白天。大连地区大部分区域的平均雷击密度值低于10次·km-2,两个极大值中心位于长海县和普兰店市;大连地区大部分区域的平均雷击强度值介于5~30 k A之间,平均雷击强度的极大值中心位于主城区、金州区、瓦房店市西部及庄河市东部,最大可达98 k A。本文依据模糊函数法综合闪电频次与雷击电流,构造雷电危险度综合指数预测模型,并以2011年4月14日雷击灾害为例,预报雷电危险度等级为4级。该模型可对大连地区的雷电危险度等级进行预测并发布预警,更加直观、方便、高效地为公众提供气象服务信息。
|
| 关 键 词： | ADTD 闪电频数 闪电强度 时空分布 雷电危险度综合指数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/9/26 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016/12/24 0:00:00 |
Temporal-spatial distributions of lightning and prediction of lightning strike risk comprehensive index over Dalian area |
| |
| CHEN Yu,WANG Lei,YANG Chao and ZHANG Ying.Temporal-spatial distributions of lightning and prediction of lightning strike risk comprehensive index over Dalian area[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2017,37(6):832-838. |
| |
| Authors: | CHEN Yu WANG Lei YANG Chao and ZHANG Ying |
| |
| Institution: | Public Meteorological Service Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China,Dalian Meteorological Bureau, Liaoning Dalian 116000, China,Strait Meteorological Open Laboratory, Fujian Xiamen 361012, China and Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, China Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The temporal and spatial characteristics of lightning frequency and intensity were analyzed and further lightning risk index prediction model was constructed by using the lightning data over Dalian observed from ADTD-2 lightning location system from 2007 to 2011. Results show that lightning more frequently occur from June to Augst, and accounts for more than 80% of the total year. The lightning significantly concentrates to occur in the afternoon and night during June and July, but mainly occurs before dawn in August. Lightning frequency at night is slightly higher than the daytime. In most area of Dalian, the mean lightning density is less than 10 km-2, with the maximum of more than 200 km-2 in Changhai and Pulandian. The mean lightning intensity is between 5-30 kA, and the maximum up to 98 kA in main urban area including jinzhou, the west of Wafangdian, and east of Zhuanghe. In addition, the lightning risk index prediction model was established based on the frequency and intensity of lightning forecast and applied to a case study in Dalian to effectively provide the public with the direct meteorological service information. |
| |
| Keywords: | ADTD Lightning frequency Lightning intensity Temporal-spatial distributions Lightning strike risk comprehensive index |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
