| 江苏省冬小麦气候适宜度动态模型建立及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 张佩,田娜,赵会颖,高苹.江苏省冬小麦气候适宜度动态模型建立及应用[J].气象科学,2015,35(4):468-473. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张佩 田娜 赵会颖 高苹 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省气象服务中心, 南京 210008,农业部南京设计院, 南京 210014,遵化市第一中学 生物组, 河北遵化 064200,江苏省气象服务中心, 南京 210008 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省气象局开放基金项目(K201005;K201304;K201107);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406028);农业科技成果转化资金项目(2013GB24160634) |
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| 摘 要： | 用1961—2010年江苏57个气象站常规气象资料和小麦产量资料,结合前人的研究思路,应用生态适宜度、模糊数学理论,引入权重分析等方法,建立了江苏省冬小麦气候适宜度的动态模型,模型检验结果良好。对1961—2010年冬小麦历年全生育期和各生育期的气候适宜度进行初步分析,结果表明:江苏省各地冬小麦气候适宜度均维持在较高水平,其中冬小麦生育期内温度适宜度最高,降水适宜度维持在较低水平,日照是其生产过程中的关键性制约气象因子。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候适宜度 动态模型 冬小麦 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014/1/20 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015/2/20 0:00:00 |
Establishment and preliminary evaluation of dynamic model of climatic suitability on winter wheat in Jiangsu province |
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| ZHANG Pei,TIAN N,ZHAO Huiying and GAO Ping.Establishment and preliminary evaluation of dynamic model of climatic suitability on winter wheat in Jiangsu province[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2015,35(4):468-473. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Pei TIAN N ZHAO Huiying and GAO Ping |
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| Institution: | Jiangsu Meteorological Service Center, Nanjing 210008, China,Nanjing Design Institute of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture, Nanjing 210014, China,Zunhua First Middle School, Hebei Zunhua 064200, China and Jiangsu Meteorological Service Center, Nanjing 210008, China |
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| Abstract: | By using conventional meteorological data and wheat production amount data from 57 meteorological stations during 1961-2010, the dynamic model of climatic suitability on winter wheat was established by ecological theory of niche-fitness and fuzzy mathematics methods combined with the study of predecessors. The dynamic variation of climatic suitability in the whole and each growth period from 1961 to 2010 was analyzed. Results indicated that the climatic suitability of winter wheat in Jiangsu kept higher level, namely, the temperature was the most suitable, precipitation became less suitable, but sunlight was substantively the main limiting factor. |
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| Keywords: | Climatic suitability Dynamic model Winter wheat |
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