| IAU-Replay初始化方法在华南暖区暴雨模拟中的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈浩伟,徐道生,高翠翠,乐迁,刘涛,张邦林.IAU-Replay初始化方法在华南暖区暴雨模拟中的应用研究[J].气象科学,2023,43(5):600-611. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈浩伟 徐道生 高翠翠 乐迁 刘涛 张邦林 |
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| 作者单位： | 韶关市气象局, 广东 韶关 512028;中国气象局 广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室, 广州 510640;贵州省人工影响天气办公室, 贵阳 550081 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省水利科技创新项目（2022-01）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（U1811464；42075014）；中国气象局/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室开放基金（J201803；J202007）；广东省自然科学基金资助项目（2021A1515011539）；广东省区域联合基金-青年基金（2021A1515110944）；广东省"珠江人才计划"引进创新创业团队（2019ZT08G669） |
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| 摘 要： | 基于TRAMS （Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System）区域模式和ECMWF （European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting）全球分析场资料，对一次华南暖区暴雨过程进行IAU-Replay模拟试验。由于本次个例模拟试验的分析时刻ECMWF分析场和TRAMS模式正好处于比较协调的状态，直接使用全球分析场进行冷启动也不会激发虚假高频短波，因此IAU-Replay方法对于模拟结果的初始平衡性影响较小。从动力场和水物质场的对比可以发现，IAU-Replay方法通过提前启动模式有效避免了Spin-up过程的影响，这对于降水预报具有明显的改进效果。对IAU-Replay中不同预热时间的敏感性进行测试，发现当预热时间从6 h延长至12 h后模式可以更加合理地模拟出与对流系统中直接相关的中小尺度信息，从而使降水预报效果更接近实况。连续一周的预报结果评估进一步验证了IAU-Replay技术的有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 分析增量更新初始化 暖区暴雨 Spin-up 初值平衡 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021/9/26 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022/1/14 0:00:00 |
Application of IAU-Replay initialization in simulating a warm-sector rainfall event in the South China |
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| CHEN Haowei,XU Daosheng,GAO Cuicui,YUE Qian,LIU Tao,ZHANG Banglin.Application of IAU-Replay initialization in simulating a warm-sector rainfall event in the South China[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2023,43(5):600-611. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Haowei XU Daosheng GAO Cuicui YUE Qian LIU Tao ZHANG Banglin |
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| Institution: | Shaoguan Meteorology Office, Guandong Shaoguan 512028, China;Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510640, China;Office of Artificial Weather Modification in Guizhou Province, Guiyang 550081, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper conducts an IAU-Replay simulation of a warm-sector torrential rain in South China, utilizing the TRAMS (Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System) regional model and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting) global analysis as the basis. Considering that the ECMWF analysis and the TRAM model at the analysis moment are well coordinated in this simulation, the use of global analysis for cold starts does not result in spurious high-frequency short waves in the forecast. As a result, the IAU-Replay method has little impact on the initial balance. Comparison of the dynamic characteristics and rainwater mixing ratio shows that the IAU-Replay method effectively mitigates the influence of the Spin-up process by initiating the model in advance. This improvement has a significant impact on precipitation forecasting. Sensitivity tests are conducted using different warm-up times in IAU-Replay, revealing that extending the warm-up time from 6 hours to 12 hours allowed the model to more accurately forecast small-and meso-scale information pertinent to convective systems. Consequently, the predicted precipitation becomes closer to the actual observed conditions. The evaluation of forecast results over a continuous week further confirmed the efficacy of the IAU-Replay technology. |
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| Keywords: | increment analysis update warm-sector rainfall Spin-up initialization |
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